There is a lot at stake for the electorate and elected representatives in Karnataka’s game of thrones, as the state looks to have a stable government after repeatedly witnessing a collapse of coalition governments.
With polling scheduled for May 10, the ruling BJP is facing a tough challenge to retain power as it battles allegations of corruption, communal polarisation and demands for caste reservation – all of which could upset the apple cart. The saffron party has been preparing to fight the anti-incumbency in this all-important assembly election, and is using its ‘development card’ to counter the anti-corruption campaign run by rival Congress.
Another important player in the elections is the Janata Dal (Secular), which is hoping for a hung verdict so that it can play the ‘kingmaker’ like it did in 2005, 2007 and 2018 when it partnered with the Congress and BJP, alternatively.
The Election Commission of India said the southern state will go to polls in a single phase and results will be declared on May 13. The tenure of the 224-member Karnataka legislative assembly will end on May 24 and the new government has to be formed on or before that date.
Neck-to-neck fight
If you look at it politically, Karnataka stands at a crossroads in this particular election; even political veterans are saying this is a tightly contested, tough and three-cornered fight with traditional rivals BJP, Congress, and JD(S) neck to neck. The AAP will be testing the waters once again and making some noise in the state, although it remains to be seen if its campaign strategy and candidate selection proves effective and impresses voters.
The outcome of this particular assembly election will also have national ramifications as India is set to face general elections next year. The BJP is hoping for a second term by going to people with a slew of development projects launched or completed during its term since 2019.
Though it emerged as the single largest party in the 2018 elections with 104 seats, the Congress with 80 seats and JD(S) with 37 allied and formed the government. This coalition did not last long as the BJP engineered a coup with over 18 MLAs from Congress and JD(S) crossing over and bringing it back to power. At present, the ruling BJP has 119 MLAs, Congress has 75, and JD(S) 28.
The BJP has set its target as 150 seats in the election with the halfway mark for a comfortable majority being 112. Yet, the party believes that it will come back to power on the plank of development under the “double engine” sarkar, Yediyurappa factor, and what chief minister Basavaraj Bommai called “Modi-Tsunami”.
The Bommai-led government finds itself trapped in allegations of demanding a 40 percent commission and clearing tenders of those who paid a higher commission. Though the Karnataka BJP made it clear that the strategy for this election will not be similar to the ‘Gujarat model’ – where many old-timers were replaced with fresh faces as candidates – because winnability is of utmost importance to fight anti-incumbency.
Stoking the ‘caste’ fire
Apart from this, the BJP is also facing severe backlash from minority communities, especially Muslims, keeping in view controversies related to hijab, halal, and the most recent scrapping of the 4 percent reservation for the community under Other Backward Classes (OBC).
The BJP may be trying to play its caste game with a leg sweep but has missed the target ball in the process. This can be seen in decisions taken on demands made by two major and electorally powerful communities – Lingayats and Vokkaligas. For any party to come to power in Karnataka, the backing of both communities is critical.
Among Lingayats, the Veerashaiva Lingayat and Panchamsali communities have separate demands as well. The former is seeking separate religious status while the latter, a sub-sect of the Veerashaiva Lingayats, has been agitating as well as demanding reservation under the 2A category.
In its effort to consolidate its position in regions that are a stronghold of Congress and JD(S), appeasing the Vokkaligas was of utmost importance. In October 2022, the state government increased the reservation for SCs from 15 percent to 17 percent and STs from 5 percent to 7 percent. On March 26, the state cabinet passed a decision to increase reservation for Vokkaligas from 4 percent to 6 percent, and for Lingayats from 5 percent to 7 percent. The provisions were made after scrapping the 4 percent Muslim reservation.
The state government recommended internal reservation within the SC quota, which has set the cat among the pigeons. Members from the Banjara community protested against the proposal for subcategories within the SC quota pushing the party further up against the wall.
In the 2018 elections, one of the factors that caused the Congress to face a major drubbing was its decision not to accord special minority status to the Veerashaiva Lingayat community.
‘Brahmastra’ Yediyurappa at play?
With no formal announcement who the chief ministerial face for the BJP will be, the party is also being forced to fall back on key election strategist and the man behind opening the saffron party’s southern account – BS Yediyurappa. Recognised as the tallest Lingayat leader and among the senior-most in the Karnataka BJP, Yediyurappa was asked to step down midway through his tenure as CM in 2021 and replaced by Bommai.
There was a strain in the relationship between the Lingayats and the BJP after reports of BSY being sidelined made headlines. The BJP quickly armed the senior leader with responsibilities not just as a parliamentary board member but also in the election campaign committee and candidate selection panels.
Political pundits said it will not be wrong to say that apart from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP will fight the election with Yediyurappa as its face. The leader, who has renounced electoral politics, has promised: ‘Not to rest until the BJP comes to power in the state and Centre’. His younger son BY Vijayendra is likely to contest from his Shikaripura assembly seat.
Tryst with destiny for Congress
The Congress has also kept the heat on the ruling party with its relentless campaign, highlighting alleged cases of corruption, misgovernance among other issues. Riding high on the effective campaign launched against corruption and the BJP, called ‘PayCM’ and ‘40 percent commission’, the Congress is also trying to roll back to power.
The only state in the south where the national party has a significant presence, the Congress has been making promises of rolling back reservation decisions and bringing back “communal harmony” as opposed to what it calls “BJP’s communally divisive factory” targeting Muslims and Christians. Even as the buildup for the elections began, BJP and Congress were exchanging barbs over contributions of the 18th century Mysuru ruler Tipu Sultan and Hindutva ideologue VD Savarkar. The BJP called Tipu a “coward, anti-national and bigot”.
The party is also likely to make senior leader Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification as an MP a big issue in Karnataka. The party has shown no urgency to get a stay on his conviction to avoid disqualification and may try to build a narrative around “victim Rahul Gandhi versus corrupt, coward and autocratic Modi”. The projection of Modi vs Rahul, however, suits the BJP more than the Congress. The effectiveness of this strategy will be tested as the party has faced several defeats in the last few years with this direct projection against Modi.
The Congress also has its woes. The tug of war between two of its senior leaders – state unit chief D Shivakumar and leader of opposition Siddaramaiah – both aspiring to be CM if voted to power has left the party vulnerable. Apart from this, the Congress has at least eight other CM aspirants, representing various “powerful” communities.
While on the outside both leaders have been asked to put up a show of unity, Congress insiders said as the voting date closed in, the competition between the two will reach a new peak and could leave the party’s workers and supporters confused. The Congress, however, is hopeful that the two major statewide yatras undertaken by Shivakuamr and Siddaramaiah will help convince voters.
‘Fence-sitter’ JD(S)
Closely watching the power play between Congress and BJP and strategising its role if it becomes kingmaker again, is the JD(S). Having had the experience of playing a crucial role in aligning with BJP or Congress to position itself in the CM chair, the regional party led by former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy is once again looking to tilt the balance in favour of either party in case of a hung assembly.
The JD(S) won 37 seats in the previous election. It had a good headstart in its election campaign with the ‘Pancharatna Yatra’ in December last year. The yatra focused on the party’s five-fold plan, or ‘Panch Ratnas’. Kumaraswamy has promised to implement people-friendly schemes in areas of education, health, housing, farmer welfare and employment. He also hopes to retain the party’s hold in its traditional stronghold of Old Mysuru.
Karnataka is a crucial state, one that is seen to contribute about 8 percent to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and the hub for several sectors like information technology (IT), defence, biotechnology, space research, and automobile manufacturing among others. So, decisions taken by voters in this state also have larger ramifications including the national prospects of BJP and Congress, especially as India goes to polls in 2024.
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