New Delhi: Three months from now the first signs of state collapse in Pakistan will become evident. That is the doomsday scenario sketched by a consultant to no less than President Obama.
The consultant David Kilcullen has warned that if collapse happens --"It will dwarf anything we've seen so far. Pakistan has a military intelligence establishment that refuses to follow the civilian leadership. Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than America's and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control.”
And doomsday appears to be on course. President Zardari has signed the bill implementing Sharia law in Swat, acknowledging that the government's writ does not run there. Maulana Sufi Mohammad the pro-Taliban cleric is the new arbiter of Swat.
Sufi mohammad has said that the Nizam-e-adal must be implemented on the basis of what the book says. All men and women shall act under Islam and parde ke saath (under the veil).
However, Islamabad appears mired in denial. Pakistani Foreign Minister Mohammed Qureshi said, “Yes there are challenges but we are not failing.”
Pakistani government seems to be using the crisis enveloping the country to leverage more aid that only feeds a military and feudal elite.
Security analyst Amir Rana said, “The Taliban are marching towards other areas, the settled areas at the same pace as they were marching from 2006. So there is no doubt that this is an emerging threat. The problem is in the vision of the government, how they want to deal with it.”
The experts say that as Islamabad gradually loses control over its territory, Washington maybe increasingly considering the unthinkable – the use of massive force to save Pakistan from itself.
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