Counting of votes is tomorrow, on May 13.
The Congress hopes that a victory in Karnataka will be replicated in the other five states that will hold elections later this year: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram, of which it is in power in two. The grand old party also feels that a positive result in the southern state would provide fresh impetus to the party for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But will Karnataka results actually have a bearing on the 2023 and 2024 elections? Let’s find out:
What Past Trends Show
- As per a report by Moneycontrol, it is not necessary that Karnataka results will have a bearing on the upcoming highly-anticipated polls. The BJP won the Karnataka state elections in 2008, and then went on to win MP and Chhattisgarh while losing Rajasthan and Mizoram later that year.
- In 2013, the Congress won Karnataka, but it did not benefit the party because it lost three state elections later that year in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan to the BJP, while keeping Mizoram, the report explains.
- The BJP was the single largest party in Karnataka in 2018, but lost to the Congress in the three North Indian states later that year, while the NDA defeated the INC in Mizoram.
- Except for Nagaland, the party that won the state elections also won the national elections in the 2008-09 Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s victory in Karnataka did not aid the party nationwide in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which were won by the UPA.
- Almost the same tendency was noticed in the 2013-14 pair of polls. The BJP won the majority of these state elections in the 2014 general election. Because of a schism in the BJP, the Congress might easily win Karnataka, but it lost the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.
- A divided verdict was observed in the 2018-19 pair of polls. Despite losing MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the BJP swept these states in the Lok Sabha elections barely four months later. In Karnataka, the Congress performed admirably in 2018, preventing the BJP from gaining a majority and creating a government, but none of this helped in the Lok Sabha elections a year later.
- The lesson of the story, as per the report, is that even if the BJP loses Karnataka or any other state election later this year, it can win in same states in Lok Sabha elections. According to CSDS, the Modi factor, which is 5-10% in state elections, was 32% in national elections in 2019.
- Because of the lack of a PM face to match Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a victory for Congress does not guarantee a strong performance in general elections in the states, as shown in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, it argues.
Possibilities of a Hung Verdict
The ruling BJP, which sought to return to power in the Assembly elections held on Wednesday, said it saw no possibility of a hung verdict, and asserted that it would get an absolute majority in the 224-member Lower House.
Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on Thursday ruled out the possibility of an ‘Operation Lotus’, saying the BJP would get 120 to 125 seats and return to power.
The term ‘Operation Lotus’ was coined several years ago by the opposition Congress and the JD(S) in the state referring to some alleged attempts by the BJP earlier to “poach opposition MLAs” when it failed to get a majority on its own.
Karandlaje said the “primary reports” obtained post elections suggest that the party was getting 120 to 125 seats.
Political leaders were finally able to relax on Thursday after weeks of high-voltage campaigning and polling on Wednesday.
Though they exude confidence about their party winning comfortably in the polls to the 224-member Assembly, the exit polls — most of which did not predict a clear winner — have certainly made them anxious to an extent, sources in both national parties told PTI.
No one wants a 2018-like scenario to unfold this time too, they said.
The JD(S) will be the key factor in case of a hung verdict, and may emerge as ‘king’ or ‘kingmaker’, as in 2018.
Party leader H D Kumaraswamy, the man who holds the key to the formation of a coalition government, in case of a fractured mandate, has left for Singapore for a health checkup, and would be back on counting day, sources said.
The JD(S) leader was hospitalised during campaigning for exhaustion and weakness.
“There is certainly a scenario of a hung verdict, and the strong possibility of a coalition government with JD(S) playing an active role. Let the results come out formally; things will get revealed one after the other as to who will play what role,” a senior JD(S) leader told PTI on grounds of anonymity.
In the previous Assembly elections in 2018, the BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats, followed by Congress with 80 seats and JD(S) 37. There was also one independent member, while the BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) got one legislator each elected.
With no party getting a clear majority then, and as Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, B S Yediyurappa of the BJP, which was the single largest party, staked a claim and formed the government. However, the government was dissolved within three days ahead of a trust vote, as Yediyurappa was unable to muster the required numbers.
Subsequently, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister, but the wobbly dispensation collapsed in 14 months, as 17 legislators resigned and came out of the ruling coalition. They defected to the BJP and facilitated the party’s return to power.
With inputs from PTI
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