By declaring Nitish Kumar as their chief ministerial candidate four months before Bihar goes to polls, the RJD-JDU-Congress combine has definitely taken a lead over the BJP, which is still in dilemma over its CM nominee. This is just one of the several issues concerning the saffron party, which once looked poised to win in Bihar.
While covering Lok Sabha polls last year, I met Vijay, a 23-year-old cab driver. Hailing from the Yadav community, Vijay, like many other youngsters, is educated, restless and ambitious. He left his family business of cattle breeding, completed his studies and when he failed to find a job, started his own cab business. On polling day in Patna during Lok Sabha elections, Vijay was thrown out of his house by his relatives because he didn't follow their diktat and voted for the BJP. He was a first-time voter, and like most of those who voted for the first time during LS polls, Vijay too had put his faith in Narendra Modi. However, his family continued to vote for a political party which boasts of protecting the rights of Yadavs.
Young voters of Bihar had for the first time not voted on caste lines. The choice was unanimous. "Modi ji ko PM banana hai, woh achhe din layenge", said an enthusiastic Vijay.
Wherever I met young voters, be it in the stronghold of Lalu Yadav in Chhapra (Lalu's wife Rabri Devi lost from here to Rajiv Pratap Rudy of the BJP), or the invincible fort of seasoned politician Sharad Yadav in Madhepura (Sharad Yadav had defeated even Lalu once, but lost to Rajeev Ranjan of RJD this time), the choice was clear, "good days are coming, Modi ji is bringing it".
It was no surprise that the BJP and allies won 31 of 40 seats in Bihar. The good governance mascot of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, failed miserably and could win only two seats. The RJD could hardly retain its 4 seat tally while the Congress could not even open their account, with stalwarts like Nikhil Kumar and Meira Kumar losing their seats. Interestingly, Aurangabad, said to be a Congress stronghold for years, was also swept by the Modi tsunami, which raised existential crises for RJD and JDU.
The mood was upbeat in the state BJP camp after the party subsequently won states like Haryana and Maharashtra. But their juggernaut was stopped by Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi.
One year after their historic show in Bihar, the ground situation for BJP has changed drastically. The enthusiasm of people like Vijay has subsided and most of them even regret voting for ‘achhe din'.
Formation Of The Grand JDU-RJD-Congress Alliance
The debacle in the Lok Sabha polls created an existential crisis for local satraps like Lalu and Nitish. Nitish even took the moral responsibility and resigned as Bihar CM, making Mahadalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi a ‘proxy'. Their camps started introspecting as the bigger enemy was a resurgent BJP. And it didn't take long before the once arch rivals of Bihar politics decided to join hands. The formula was simple, as Lalu Yadav put it. The BJP and allies got 38 per cent votes while RJD, JDU and Congress got 20.46 per cent, 16.04 per cent and 8.50 per cent respectively. Together, their vote share would be 45 per cent. A clear winner. The rivalry of two decades was forgotten and the RJDU-JDU alliance contested by-polls in September, winning 6 out of 10 seats.
A jubilant Lalu announced the merger of the RJD and JDU, and extended the welcome to other like-minded socialists like Samajwadi Party (SP) Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav to join them. The progress of the Janata Parivar merger has definitely worried the state BJP.
Infighting Within BJP
The state unit is also plagued by infighting. Post Lok Sabha results, local BJP leaders assumed that the victory in Bihar was just a matter of time. Earlier, when it was in alliance with JDU, Nitish was the face of the alliance and CM, while Sushil Modi was his able deputy. Despite his closeness to the central BJP leaders, Sushil Modi is not popular among the rank and file of the state BJP. Many even label him as an arrogant leader.
The Lok Sabha elections threw open a plethora of local BJP leaders projecting themselves as CM aspirants, even though elections were still a year away. Patna Sahib MP Shatrughna Sinha was disappointed over not being inducted into the Union Cabinet, due to his closeness to LK Advani. But that has not deterred the ‘Bihari Babu' from projecting himself as the CM candidate. He has dropped hints many times. Another name doing the rounds is the minority face of the Bihar BJP, Shahnawaz Hussain, who would have definitely been a Cabinet minister had he not lost election to Bulo Mandal of RJD from Bhagalpur. Hussain avoids any questions of him being interested in being the CM aspirant. Another self-projected CM aspirant is Nand Kishore Yadav, who has openly announced his claim for the coveted job.
These leaders are certainly going to make the road tough for the BJP ahead of Bihar Assembly elections.
No Mass Leader In Bihar BJP
Another worry of the BJP is that there is no mass leader who can be as charismatic as Nitish Kumar. Though a couple of ministers in the Modi Cabinet do have a following owing to caste allegiances, none of them can be termed as a mass leader.
Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh has limited appeal and that too among only the Rajputs, who don't usually vote for one particular party. Earlier their loyalty was divided between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar, but the Lok Sabha polls saw them rallying behind the BJP. Rajeev Pratap Rudy is an unlikely choice for CM despite defeating Rabri Devi in the Lok Sabha polls. He does not have a strong base even in his constituency Chhapra. Controversial Modi minister Girriaj Singh also has limited appeal in the Bhumihar community, but his projection might irk other communities like Yadavs and Rajputs.
Another face, Nand Kishore Yadav, can divide the crucial Yadav votes, but he is no match to the Lalu-Nitish duo.
State BJP leaders consider Shatrughan ‘Shotgun' Sinha an outsider despite his overwhelming popularity in Bihar. Given his image and closeness to the Advani camp, it's very unlikely that he would even be considered for the job. Ravi Shankar Prasad and Shahnawaz Hussain also lack any mass appeal.
The LJP's Ram Vilas Paswan is an undisputed leader of the Paswan community and he has some appeal among the upper castes and other lower castes. However, he has lost his Muslim vote bank after joining hands with the BJP. It is also very unlikely that the BJP will project someone from outside the party as the CM face against Nitish Kumar.
Sushil Modi remains BJP's only viable face, but is no match to an incumbent Nitish Kumar. So it remains to be seen if the BJP goes to polls against the combined might of Lalu and Nitish without a CM face. The Lok Sabha was all about Modi. As many BJP leaders admitted, people did not vote against Nitish Kumar, but voted for Modi. But this time it will be different.
Winning Bihar is an ego battle for both Narendra Modi as well as Nitish Kumar. The latter didn't even allow Modi to enter his state even when he was in coalition with the BJP. Nitish went on to snap the 17-year-old alliance over Modi becoming the PM candidate of the NDA. While round one of this ego battle was won distinctively by Modi, round two went to Nitish when he defeated BJP in by-polls. The Bihar elections is going to be the final round of this battle and it will decide not only the fate of two local satraps, who have influenced the politics of India in their own unique ways in the last 25 years, but will also prove to be a litmus test for the Modi government and its policies.
"Achhe din has come", PM Modi had claimed in an interview soon after completing one year in office. But have they? Bihar elections may bring an answer to this.
(Amit Raj Singh is a Patna-based journalist)
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