One could answer this question in reverse by trying to understand why MGB, which promised 10 lakh jobs and exploited 15 years of Nitish Kumar’s anti-incumbency, is doing so badly. The answer lies in the performance of RJD, which had to do well not just in its strongholds like Siwan, Gopalgunj and Maharajgunj, part of Bhojpur region which went to polls in the first phase. The Tejashwi Yadav-led party also had to strike well in rural areas and ultimately get to a minimum strike rate of 60% or so.
In other words only if RJD got between 80-90 seats of the 144 it was contesting, could it hope to form the government in alliance with Left (contesting on 29 seats) and Congress (contesting on 70 seats) which then together could have got Tejashwi past the halfway mark. With JD(U) facing anti-incumbency and the Congress not being a major regional player, the fight had ultimately become between RJD vs BJP. And in this interesting contest, as per the latest trends, BJP is getting a much better strike rate on its own turf as well as on the turf of the opposition.
In Bhojpur region, for instance, BJP is leading on 12/46 while RJD is going strong on 16. This is also the stronghold of CPI(ML), which also seems to be making early gains. If one looks at rural seats (213/243), BJP is leading on 54 seats against RJD’s leads on 53 seats. In semi-urban seats as well BJP is leading on more seats, 11, against RJD’s five seats. The case is the same in SC seats (BJP up on 11 seats against RJD’s nine).
BJP seems to be doing well on its own turf as well. The phases which went to polls in the last phase, which have strong Muslim presence, areas like West Champaran, Seemanchal, BJP seems to be doing much better. In Kosi, Mithila and Tirhut regions, BJP is leading on 41 out of 243 seats, followed by JD(U) on 32 and RJD on 19. Some have speculated that a counter-mobilisation helped BJP in this region. This is the region where the Prime Minister in his last rallies said that the opposition gets “headache every time someone says Jai Shri Ram”.
In General category seats (203/243) BJP is leading on 60 seats followed by RJD on 50 and JD(U) on 42. In seats with substantial female presence (sex ratio of over 900) as well, BJP-JD(U) combine is leading on 44 of 98 seats, RJD-Congress duo is ahead on only 39 seats. Many had speculated about women voters going away from the ruling NDA because of unemployment and poverty.
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