Karauli-Dholpur Lok Sabha Election: In This Rajasthan Constituency, It's a Jatav vs Jatav Battle

Karauli-Dholpur (SC) Lok Sabha constituency is designated a Scheduled Caste (SC) parliamentary seat. It encompasses the entirety of Dholpur district and Karauli district. At present, the constituency comprises eight Legislative Assembly segments, including Baseri (SC), Bari, Dholpur and Rajakhera in Dholpur district and Todabhim (ST), Hindaun (SC), Karauli, and Sapotra (ST) in Karauli district. The seat was established in 2008 through the delimitation process. The constituency shares its borders with Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The current MP is Manoj Rajoria of BJP since 2014. He was preceded by Khiladi Lal Bairwa of the Congress. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the candidates in the fray are BJP’s Indu Devi Jatav and Congress’ Bhajan Lal Jatav. Results for the polls will be declared on June 4.

Voting Factors

• 2023 Assembly Elections: In the 2023 assembly election, the Congress bagged five of eight seats, which included all seats in the Dholpur district and two in Karauli. Meanwhile, the BJP has two seats in the Karauli district, namely Karauli and Sapotra and none in Dholpur. Another player, BSP, has one seat in Bari in Dholpur district.
• BJP vs Congress: It’s set to be a tight contest between the BJP and Congress from this seat. While the two districts of Karauli and Dholpur have traditionally leaned towards the Congress, the BJP took the reins of their parliamentary seat in 2014 majorly due to the Modi factor.
• BJP wary of anti-incumbency: Manoj Rajoria, the sitting two-time MP from the seat, has been dropped this time by the BJP. Anti-incumbency against Rajoria was considerably visible as he was accused of losing touch with his constituents and not serving their interests well. In fact, one of the strongest factors working against him was the stalling of the Dholpur-Sarmathura-Karauli-Gangapur City Rail Project which was meant to enhance rail connectivity between Dholpur and Karauli, a long-standing demand of the people here.
• Indu Jatav Factor: Owing to the strong sense of anti-incumbency against Rajoria and a degree of infighting in the party, the BJP has introduced a fresh face to contest from the seat. Indu Jatav is a much younger face, with no controversies attached to her name and a positive reputation as an accessible grassroots leader, all of which Rajoria lacked. She is also from the Jatav community unlike Rajoria, who is from the Khatik community, and is expected to attract a major chunk of the dominant Jatavs, who have 3.62 lakh votes in the seat.
• Insider vs Outsider: Congress has fielded Bhajanlal Jatav as its face. In the Jatav vs Jatav fight, the narrative of insider versus outsider has taken centerstage ahead of elections. Bhajanlal, a two-time MLA from Bharatpur’s Weir assembly constituency and a former cabinet minister in the last Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government, is perceived as a non-local leader despite his seniority in the Congress. On the other hand, Indu, who served as the Pradhan in the Karauli Panchayat Samiti from 2015 to 2020, has garnered recognition for her grassroots work. Local BJP leaders endorse her candidacy, citing her close connection with the constituents.
• Caste Dominates: Caste-based voting is a major factor to look out for in this seat. As mentioned earlier, it is significantly influenced by Jatavs whose 3.62 lakh votes may emerge as kingmakers in the seat. Rajputs are another core vote bank for the BJP. Other dominant castes include the Meenas who form more than half of the 22.5 per cent SC population, the Malis and the Gujjars. All three castes are expected to split between the BJP and the Congress.
• Khiladi Lal Bairwa Joins BJP: Former Congress MP from Karauli-Dholpur (2009-2014) and MLA from Baseri (2018-2023), Khiladi Lal Bairwa, joined the BJP in March 2024 along with many other Congress leaders in the state. Bairwa is well-known leader and is expected to bring in votes from the Bairwa caste for the BJP, apart from bolstering the party overall.
• Modi Factor: The Modi factor in this seat is significantly pronounced. The effect of various welfare schemes, including free ration, Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat and more, have boosted the prime minister’s image. Further, Hindutva and especially the Ram Mandir inauguration have had a significant impact in this largely Hindu seat.
• Other Factors in Favour of BJP: The BJP-held assembly seats of Karauli and Sapotra (ST) are going to lean heavily towards the saffron party. The BJP also looks strong in Dholpur, the stronghold of former chief minister and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje.
• Congress Banking on Anti-Incumbency: In the 2023 assembly elections, the Congress secured victory in five of the eight assembly segments despite the anti-incumbency against Ashok Gehlot. Ironically, the party is now hoping that the anti-incumbency against Manoj Rajoria can help it pull off another upset against BJP.
• Bhajan Lal Jatav: Bhajan Lal Jatav is a fresh face in the area as the Congress seeks to compete for Jatav votes with the BJP. Jatav is banking on Congress’ upper hand in assembly segments and the governance record of the previous Congress government to help him sail through. While he is poised to benefit from the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP’s move to field a fresh candidate has complicated the contest for him.
• Factors in Bhajan Lal’s Favour: Apart from anti-incumbency, the Congress is banking on a traditional core vote bank of Muslims and a significant chunk of the Meena (ST) vote. Moreover, people of the Mali caste will also split between the BJP and Congress. Overall, the party is giving the BJP a tough fight here by pointing out the positives of the tenure of Ashok Gehlot, and attacking Rajoria’s shortcomings. National issues also find some resonance, and Congress has been accusing the BJP of wanting to do away with the country’s Constitution, an issue that has found some resonance among Scheduled Caste voters in this SC-dominated seat.
• Challenges: The exit of senior party leaders like Khiladi Lal Bairwa, the underwhelming appeal of the national Congress leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the seat are factors affecting the Congress’ chances.

Key Constituency Issues

• Long-standing Demand for Broad-Gauge Line: For the past 114 years, a narrow-gauge train has been running between Dholpur city and Sarmathura town in Dholpur district. Karauli is situated approximately 44 km further from Sarmathura. At this point, there is no feasible rail connection between Dholpur and Karauli. To address this issue, the Dholpur-Sarmathura-Karauli-Gangapur City Rail Project was sanctioned more than a decade ago. Former CM Ashok Gehlot laid the project’s foundation stone in 2013, and the cost was to be shared between the Centre and state. However, BJP MP Manoj Rajoria has been opposing the project and instead wants the existing 114-year-old narrow-gauge rail line to be declared a national heritage. Over the years, this issue has grown into the biggest election grouse for locals. The delayed progress has ultimately taken down Rajoria. In February, it was announced by Rajoria that the government has finally started work on the project following his demands, but that has not alleviated the sentiment against him. The broad-gauge project has potential advantages, particularly in curbing transportation expenses for essential goods and materials, crucial for industries like stone and sand mining prevalent in the region.
• Poor condition of railway stations: Several stations along the Dholpur-Sarmathura route are in a dismal state, worsened by encroachments blocking access roads. Angai station is a prime example. It is marked as ‘abandoned’ by the Railways, yet trains halt there, allowing passengers to board for free. However, reaching the station requires a 2-km walk due to illegal occupation of railway land by villagers, rendering it inaccessible to vehicles.
• Connectivity: Road and rail connectivity is extremely poor and the constituency is dependent on Agra, Gwalior or Jaipur airports which are all more than a 100 kilometres away. The people demand more passenger and goods trains, seamless connectivity between Karauli and Dholpur and enhanced connectivity with the rest of Rajasthan and bordering states of UP and MP.
• Low Voter Turnout: The Karauli-Dholpur constituency has been reporting the lowest voter turnout in Rajasthan in the Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the seat showed a turnout of 55.18 per cent, which is lower than the national average of 67.4 per cent.
• Farmers’ issues: While farmers’ protests up north have had minimal effect on the public discourse here, the farmers in the Karauli-Dholpur constituency grapple with a multitude of challenges, including water scarcity, inadequate irrigation facilities, low crop yields, diminishing incomes, dissatisfaction with minimum support prices (MSPs), inadequate crop insurance coverage, land fragmentation, and fluctuating market prices. These issues collectively undermine the economic stability and livelihoods of farmers in the region.
• Water Issues: Water issues come up in this seat every year. While farmers struggle for water for agriculture, there is also a need to address a drinking water crisis as water from borewells has high fluoride content and affects people’s health.
• Crime: Several rape cases have emerged from Karauli in recent years. It was reported last year that a public health engineering (PHE) department employee in Todabhim town allegedly raped a minor girl. Another horrific case involving the gangrape and murder of a Dalit girl had surfaced in the area. Following the brutal assault, the perpetrators allegedly shot the victim and poured acid on her to conceal her identity. This caught media attention widely. Moreover, abductions and murders, though on a decline, are still a raging issue in this area. Last year, PM Modi said to a crowd in Karauli, “The state of lawlessness and disorder in Rajasthan is the hallmark of Congress-led government.”
• Unemployment: Unemployment is another issue in this largely rural seat. There is a strong tourism opportunity in this hilly, forested region which, if tapped into, will provide employment to many. Moreover, the economic potential of the two main districts here cannot be realised without enhanced connectivity.

Voter Demographics

● Total voters (2019): 1800467

● Rural voters: 82.8%

● Urban voters: 17.2%

● Literacy rate: 55.94%

Social Demographics

● SC voters: 22.5%

● ST voters: 14.6%

Religious Demographics

● Hindu: 92%

● Muslim: 6.9%

● Jain: 0.3%

● Christian: 0.05%

● Sikh: 0.07%

Infrastructure

• Tiger Conservation: The National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) has granted permission for the creation of the Dholpur-Karauli Tiger Reserve in Rajasthan. This reserve will become the fifth tiger reserve in the state, joining the ranks of Mukundra Hills, Ramgarh Vishdhari, Ranthambore, and Sariska, and the 54th tiger reserve in the country. This will produce more employment opportunities for the people by boosting eco-tourism in the area.
• Highway Connectivity: Highway connectivity has significantly improved, which has brought much-needed development for the people. The region has been connected with the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, the foundation of which was laid in 2019 and will be built at a cost of Rs 1,00,000 crore. The first phase of the Delhi-Dausa-Lalsot section of the expressway was inaugurated by PM Modi in 2023. The two-Lane Lalsot-Karauli Project on NH-23 will be 93 Km long and worth Rs 150 crore. It will smoothen the mobility between Kothun and Karauli.
• Health: Karauli has got a new medical and nursing college, inaugurated by PM Modi in February this year. Construction of the medical college building along the Karauli-Mandrayal road commenced in July 2022 under the supervision of RSRDC, with a total budget of Rs 325 crore allocated for the project. Approximately Rs 150 crore is designated for civil work, while the remaining funds will cover other resources. The medical college has been allotted 75 bighas of land for its campus. Dr Sarwan Kumar Meena, principal of the Government Medical College, reported that it has been granted 100 seats, all of which were filled in the inaugural year. Additionally, the medical college includes a nursing college with an allocation of 60 seats annually.
• ERCP Water Project: The state BJP government is working on the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project, signing a tripartite MOU with New Delhi and Madhya Pradesh. ERCP is an ambitious project of over Rs 40,000 crore which will help augment irrigation facilities in an area of around 2 lakh hectares in 13 districts of Rajasthan, including Karauli and Dholpur. This is a crucial drinking and irrigation water project catering to a longstanding demand. The initiative was envisioned by the BJP administration under the leadership of former chief minister Vasundhara Raje in November 2017.