There are two clear winners and many losers in the run up to the battle for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The creation of Telangana is likely to boost the political prospects of two political parties - Telangana Rashra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress, which is staring at decimation is likely to retain its hold over Telangana. The TDP led by N Chandrababu Naidu may end up as the biggest loser on both sides in the whole exercise.
YS Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSRCP has been the most vocal critic of bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh and he is likely to reap the benefits in Andhra Pradesh. His main rival the TDP may lose because of its ambiguous stand on the division of AP. The TDP's proximity to the BJP leadership may also go against the party.
In AP (Seemandhra), people are angry with both the Congress and the BJP for joining hands to divide their state. According to TDP sources Chandrababu Naidu, who was earlier planning to go with the BJP, is now rethinking.
The TDP has a considerable presence in Telangana. But the credit of creating a new state will be grabbed by the Congress and the TRS. If they merge or even if they have an alliance, the combine is expected to sweep the new state.
Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra) has 25 Lok Sabha seats and 175 Assembly seats. After the division, it will have two regions - Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra (together they are called Seemandhra).
Rayalaseema is a bastion of Jaganmohan Reddy. It has 8 Lok Sabha seats and 56 Assembly seats. According analysts, he is likely to sweep most of them.
Coastal Andhra has 17 Lok Sabha seats and 119 Assembly seats. The TDP has a very strong presence here. But, its stand on Telangana may cost the votes for the party. The Congress which is staring at a huge defeat is banking on actor and minister Chiranjeevi. He belongs to the Kapu caste and they are spread over both the states. But, Kapus are also angry with the Congress for dividing their state and may back Jagan.
If former chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy forms his own political party, he may end up spoiling the chances of Jagan at some places. But, some argue that he will actually complete the decimation of the Congress by garnering the leftover votes and won't harm Jagan.
The BJP is almost non-existent in Andhra Pradesh. It is trying to make inroads into the TRS votes in Telangana. If the Congress and the TRS merge, the opposition space may go to the BJP in future.
The TRS chief K Chandrashekhara Rao is trying to convince the Congress high command against a merger saying that it will help the growth of BJP and they should not cede the opposition space to any other party.
The CPI and the CPM also have a marginal presence in Telangana. The bifurcation won't make any difference to the AIMIM chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi. Actually, it may help him in the long run as Telangana state has just 119 MLAs. Currently MIM has 7 MLAs. If he manages to increase his strength in the assembly elections, he may even emerge as a kingmaker in future, if the poll throws up a hung assembly.
Both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are just two months away and this time, there is only one poll issue across two states. That is Telangana and only Telangana.
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