New Delhi: The optimism of the Muslim community in western Uttar Pradesh rose several notches higher on the back of the much anticipated Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance ahead of the state elections in February 2017.
Falling in the first phase of elections, the region, which has a higher percentage of Muslim population (26%) than the rest of Uttar Pradesh as a whole (18%), is likely to influence electoral outcomes as the polls move from west to east.
In Deoband, there was much anxiety and anticipation when alliance talks hit a roadblock. Faheem Akhter Siddiqui of the Muslim Fund Trust in Deoband said, “We were disappointed on hearing about the pact falling off but the moment it was sealed, it spread like good news. We were sure of our options.”
The pact is believed to reign in communal troubles in future that became the order of the day since the Muzaffarnagar riots. Recently, Sardhana MLA Sangeet Som tried to stir tensions by using a controversial documentary depicting the Muzaffarnagar riot scenes in his election campaign. BJP MP Hukum Singh raised the issue of Hindu exodus from Kairana and continues to raise the pitch against the state government and the “crumbling” law and order situation in the region.
As per the 2001 Census, there are 72.69% Hindus and 25.89% Muslims in western UP. Even though Hindus are in a majority, the percentage of Muslims is higher here than in Uttar Pradesh as a whole.
Akhtar said, “I am not denying the split in Muslim votes in this election because some parties will field Muslim candidates and some will show their secular credentials, but the split will not be anything big in comparison to the consolidation of Muslim votes behind this alliance. I can see a lot interest in the community since the alliance was formed.”
The buzz in the region is about defeating the BJP and who can do that, he said. “The idea will be to vote for a winnable option over other things and the alliance appears to be a good option.”
But there are some constituencies where the consolidation of votes might not happen in favour of the gathbandhan (alliance). The community is expected to cast votes tactically to defeat the BJP in some of the regions and go for strong popular candidates. A case in point is Shamli’s Thana Bhawan, from where BJP’s Suresh Rana is contesting against Abdul Waris Rao of the BSP, who won in 2007 from the RLD. Also in fray are Sudhir Panwar from the Samajwadi Party and Javed Rao from RLD.
CSDS co-ordinator in UP and Aligarh Muslim University professor Asmer Beg said, “If there is a Muslim vote, there is also a Brahmin or Bania vote. The different social groups vote depending on their local conditions and candidates.”
Though there is Akhilesh Yadav’s wave in the state, and the big alliance is being seen as a Bihar redux, Sudha Pai, national fellow at the Indian Council of Social Sciences, said, “It is too early to say anything. There is Mayawati also and the BJP might not be as weak as it seems to be. Somehow, their party has been able to use social media and very aggressive campaigning as they did in 2014. But what remains to be seen is if it will hold this time too for them.”
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