It is the last battle for Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and he is not going away without putting up a strong fight. From nonstop, back breaking campaigning across the state for over few months, to micro managing booth-level organisation, he has tried it all. But would this be enough to stall the undercurrent of 'Poriborton' or 'Change'?
A fatigue has developed in Assam, especially so in Urban areas after 15 years of Gogoi government. If you talk to people on the ground, no one is particularly angry with the grand old man, but yearns for some kind of a change. And this is the exact sentiment which has been exploited by BJP, who pitched in the youthful duo of CM candidate Sarbananda Sonowal and former 'manager-in-chief' of Gogoi, Himanta Biswasarma.
BJP is fighting the election on the twin plank of development and illegal Bangladeshi immigration. While the first one is to cater to the aspirational class, youth and the urban voters, the illegal immigration issue panders to the large sections Assamese population.
The first phase of polling which took place on April 4 appears to have given BJP the edge. Though Congress appears to be upbeat, it appears that upper Assam will not give them more than a third of the 65 seats that went for polls. But does that mean Congress is out of the game? Not really, if it can make up for it in the Lower and Middle Assam.
This is where the most of the Bengali Muslim voters are located. A community which has been at the receiving end of BJP's long drawn out campaign. For the last two Assembly polls they have been steadily moving towards AIUDF, a political party started by perfume Baron Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a Bengali Muslim himself.
This identity based party was seen to be the Messiah of the Bengali Muslims, but the charm of the Maulana is fading in some areas. Though his party hopes to gain from the strong anti-Bengali Muslim campaign of the BJP, Congress too is in the game.
A community which votes often on fear psychosis is being chased by both Congress and AIUDF. The message that is sent out by the Congress is understated but clear: with BJP gaining in other areas, vote us if you want a non BJP government, because AIUDF is a sub regional party which can't form a government on its own. But speaking of BJP, it is the one time golden boy of Tarun Gogoi, who is now giving him sleepless nights.
Himanta Biswasarma has been the chief architect of this BJP campaign. He is arguably the only BJP leader who is as popular in Brahmaputra valley, as he is in the Barak Valley. Though the Chief Ministerial candidate for BJP is Sarbananda Sonowal, he is fast on his way to eclipse him. An indicator of this is the fact that party president Amit Shah who would earlier mention only Sonowal, now say ' Sarbananda aur Himanta Ki jodi' ( Sarba - Himanta pair ). Many say Himanta has made it a personal prestige battle to defeat Tarun Gogoi.
In case BJP emerges as the single largest party but falls short of majority, it is again this man who will come in handy. And who knows he might just seek Chief Minister's chair in return? The allies AGP and BPF are said to be rather close to Himanta.
But this dual power structures can undo BJP too, when two factions are emerging so clearly, questions remain on how each faction will aide the other in winning the game.
This is one state which has taught pollsters and political parties the lesson for not waiting till the last vote gets counted. The gravepine has it, last year a particular AGP leader had stitched his oath taking suit before getting a crashing defeat. This is the beauty of democracy, the power of us, the common women n men. While the EVMs would be sealed by the evening, the parties will have to keep guessing till 19th of May.
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