Guwahati: The Indian Government debunked a prediction based on planetary positions that warned of a possible major earthquake in Assam on Friday, even as the authorities sounded a maximum alert all across the northeastern state.
Responding to the sense of fear triggered by his prediction, Madras University geologist S Venkatanathan said that there was absolutely no need for panic.
"Since I have given 70 per cent probability for the occurrence of the earthquake, there is still 30 per cent chance for its non-occurrence," Venkatanathan said.
But R S Duttareyam, director of seismology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that Venkatanathan's forecast of an earthquake of 7-8 magnitude on the Richter scale hitting Assam at 08:21 hours IST, on Friday had no scientific basis.
"We do not believe in this prediction. So far, there are no scientific means to predict with reasonable degree of accuracy and certainty the time, location and magnitude of an earthquake," Duttareyam said in New Delhi.
The assuring comments from Duttareyam and Venkatanathan came as fears of the earthquake spread through Assam forcing many schools to order a holiday on Friday in view of the warning.
"We have sounded a high alert asking all departments to be ready to meet any eventualities though we appeal to the people not to panic," Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said.
"We know there is no definite scientific evidence yet to predict an earthquake although we cannot simply ignore such warnings," Gogoi added.
Venkatanathan had said that the quake's epicenter would be about 15 km southwest of Dibrugarh. Dibrugarh is about 500 km east of Assam's main city Guwahati.
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Seismologists do not accept his theory. Venkatanathan said his alert was not an official warning but flowed out of his theory based on geo-astrophysical calculations that he said he has successfully tested for several years.
Assam Health Minister and government spokesman Himanta Biswa Sarma said, "Our disaster management teams of civil defence, health workers, doctors, police and paramilitary forces, fire services and engineers are on full alert."
But panic has gripped Assam after English and Assamese newspapers carried the prediction Thursday.
In some schools, demonstrations were given telling students how to react if the disaster did take place.
"There is bound to be panic when you read such reports," said Hitesh Baruah, a doctor in Guwahati. People across Assam made bulk purchases of essentials as well as medicines.
People also queued before ATMs to withdraw money. "You never know the cash dispensing machines could go dry or not work if something happens," said Arindam Nath, a government official in Guwahati.
Some prepared to hold special prayers to ward off any disaster.
"We are leaving tonight to Guwahati from Dibrugarh as this is the place where the epicenter is being predicted. At least the devastation would be less in Guwahati," said Rontu Das, a businessman in Dibrugarh.
On Thursday, Venkatanathan said: "As a scientist specializing in this area, I released the results of my calculations to forewarn the government and not to cause panic among the people."
Arun Bapat, a seismologist from Pune contacted by Assam officials Thursday, said he has advised them to look out for drop in water level in wells and rivers and other parameters that are "short term earthquake precursors."
But Duttareyam maintained that prediction of an earthquake had to be based on "scientific facts".
"Scientific data has to be authenticated by a team of experts before any forecast can be made. In this case, when it is a matter of public concern, the scientists have to be more prudent and should use only a scientific basis before making such statements," he said.
Questioning the accuracy and reliability of Venkatanathan's predictions, Duttareyam said earthquakes have been forecast in the northeast region in the past but hardly any has occurred.
IMD centres across the country have been monitoring seismic data but have not issued any alert so far.
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