Regional parties will play crucial role in general elections slated for 2014, according to a latest survey by a news channel. The survey highlights that out of 543 seats in Lok Sabha, regional parties will get at least 240 seats and hence their role in forming government at the Centre will play a big role.
Without their support, even BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi will find it difficult to form a BJP government at the Centre. He will have to seek the support of regional parties for a possible coalition which can help him get a BJP-led government at the Centre. Some of the survey findings have been listed below:
NDA to get more seats than UPA
NDA is likely to get more seats than UPA. Statistically, NDA will get 186 seats against 159 seats it got in 2009 , UPA will see lesser seats this time - 117 against 259 it got in 2009.
Regional parties will decide who will form govt at the Centre
After general elections' results are announced, regional parties will decide who will form government at the Centre as there is no question of a single party winning majority, the survey stated.
Support of regional parties like AIADMK, Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Left front, Trinamool Congress (TMC), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress, Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, (TRS) will ultimately decide whether India will have a Congress or a BJP-led government at the Centre in 2014 general elections.
Congress will wind up at 102 seats, BJP to get 162 seats
According to the survey, NDA will get 35 per cent votes, UPA will get 27 per cent votes, and regional parties will take away 38 per cent votes. Party wise breakup shows that Congress will get 102 seats against 206 seats in 2009- much less than BJP that is likely to get 162 seats against 116 seats it got in 2009.
JD(U) will suffer a setback with only 9 seats
The survey study reveals party-wise breakup of the number of seats they are likely to get. The following regional parties are likely to win:
AIADMK- 28 seats, Samajwadi Party (SP)- 25 seats, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)- 31 seats, Left front- 32 seats, Trinamool Congress (TMC)- 23 seats, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)- 14 seats. In Andhra Pradesh Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, (TRS) and YSR Congress can acquire 13 seats.
However situation looks grim for Bihar's JD(U) as it might get only 9 seats this time. In last elections, JD(U) was able to get 20 seats. Also in Tamil Nadu, opposition party DMK which has 18 members might see a fall and hence is likely to get only 5 seats.
Modi magic likely to work in UP, Bihar
According to another survey by a newspaper with Nielsen, UP and Bihar's support for Narendra Modi has gone up, he is much ahead of Rahul Gandhi. In these states, every second voter is supporting Modi's PM candidature.
The survey has found that almost 50 per cent of UP voters and 47 per cent of Bihar's voters want Modi as their PM. On the other hand, only 9 per cent of UP and 19 per cent of Bihar wants to see Rahul Gandhi become the PM.
Study done gender-wise, age-wise or region-wise shows Narendra Modi has a clear win over Rahul Gandhi in the upcoming general elections. The survey also tells that its the Modi fervour which may be the sole factor for BJP's win in these two states. In UP, BJP may get around 27 seats this time against 10 seats in 2009. SP with 16 seats and Congress with 12 seats will suffer a huge setback whereas condition of BSP with 20 seats will remain unaffected, survey said.
Situation looks similar in Bihar where expected break up of seats parties are likely to get this time are as follows:
BJP-17 seats against 12 seats in 2009
JD(U)- 10 seats against 20 seats in 2009
Congress may get 4 seats,
RJD- 5 seats.
(Inputs from agencies)
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