First, Eknath Shinde and, almost exactly a year later, it’s Ajit Pawar. One was elevated to the post of Maharashtra chief minister and the other took oath, once again, as the deputy chief minister for a fifth term and (third time since 2019) on Sunday. Shinde belonged to the Shiv Sena and Ajit to the NCP, and their departure to join the BJP-led NDA left both their parties gasping for breath. Now, Ajit, much like Shinde did with the Sena, is claiming that his faction is the “real NCP”.
Both the political heavyweights were disgruntled with their roles in their parties as well as their parties’ alliance role in the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government. Known to be grassroots leaders with a strong influence over party cadres, there are several similarities between the rebellions of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.
Battle of succession
Many political experts will say the seed of discontent was sown way back in 2019 when Ajit Pawar headed off to the BJP but returned a failed rebel and calmly took up the post of Uddhav Thackeray’s deputy in the MVA government. But more recent events finally led Ajit to carry out a full-blown coup, especially after he was nowhere in the picture when NCP supremo Sharad Pawar named daughter Supriya Sule national working president on June 10. He was once again ignored when he made a pitch for the post of state president on the NCP’s 25th foundation day and said he no longer wanted to be the leader of the opposition. Sharad Pawar failed to commit to his nephew’s wishes.
Shinde, too, after he split from the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena hinted that he had asked for a “bigger role” and some kind of “power-sharing”. Even during the Sena versus Sena battle in the court, he time and again claimed that he was the “real successor of the real Shiv Sena”, one founded by Balasaheb Thackeray. He repeatedly attacked Uddhav for forgetting the true purpose and ideology of the party, especially in his decision to align with the NCP and Congress so as to become the CM.
While in the NCP, the patriarch is very much in the political game, in the Sena’s case, Shinde felt he was a stronger leader than Uddhav and more deserving of carrying forward the patriarch’s Hindutva legacy and, hence, worked hard to keep that alive by siding with the BJP.
Disagreement over aligning with the BJP
In 2019, Ajit had taken oath as the deputy of Devendra Fadnavis, but came around after Sharad Pawar intervened. He later became deputy to Uddhav in the MVA government and will now share the role with Fadnavis with Shinde as CM. This is also being interpreted as a further demotion for Fadnavis, though that’s another story altogether. Shinde, too, was uncomfortable with the Sena’s role in the MVA government as he felt that the party was a natural ally to the BJP.
Strength in numbers
There is much similarity in the number of MLAs that supported the two leaders in their rebellion. While the Sena originally had 55 MLAs and Shinde took away 40, the NCP also had 53 and, as of now, the number going away with Ajit is said to be 40.
Ambitious second-generation leaders
There is a difference of four years in the age of Ajit and Shinde. One is about to turn 60 and the other did so only a while ago. At such an age, both the leaders have come into their own and want to decide matters differently for their parties without heeding to the leadership’s decisions.
Solid support from the cadres
Ajit and Shinde are both seen as grassroots leaders with direct support networks within the party cadres. Loyalty to them among the cadre is also to their personalities and not just to the party as such.
There is, however, a slight difference in how they rose within the party. While Ajit is from the influential reigning family of the NCP, Shinde was a part of the cadre before rising through the ranks. That difference apart, as of now, they are both seen as aggressive leaders with their ear to the ground. That is perhaps why Ajit went ahead and aligned with the BJP even in 2019.
Shinde has also argued that the cadres of the Sena wanted to align with the BJP and that Uddhav was aloof and unaware of what they really wanted. In both cases, the preferred party heirs – Uddhav in the Sena and Sule in the NCP – are seen as soft-spoken and urbane personalities. Both Shinde and Ajit have their particular areas of influence.
Ideology and politicking
Going by their ideological pronouncements in the past, Shinde and even the Sena at large was always seen as a natural ally to the BJP for their Hindutva agenda. The NCP, meanwhile, formed by Sharad Pawar after splitting from the Congress in the late 1990s, has tried to project itself as a more broad-based party.
So much so, Sharad Pawar, while having split the Congress over the question of a foreign-born Sonia Gandhi becoming its leader, has since been working as the grand old party’s partner for long periods. The veteran politician is, however, known to keep his options open. Yet, after the 2019 assembly elections, he chose to form a rather unlikely alliance against the BJP, even drawing in the Uddhav-led Sena into partnership with the Congress. He also reportedly lambasted Ajit for his brief dalliance with the BJP and later made Ajit the deputy to Uddhav in the MVA government.
In this alliance, Shinde was a minister too but he has said he never saw it as being anything other than political manoeuvring. He saw the BJP as the ideological partner that the Sena should have gone with.
Regional parties’ fear of the BJP usurping them
In both cases – the Sena led by Uddhav and NCP led by Sharad Pawar – one of the chief arguments of the existing leadership was that the BJP, particularly the Modi-Shah duo, dominate the regional partners and even work towards their decimation while being an ally. Uddhav had even said that with Shinde now becoming “a puppet of the BJP” proved that the saffron camp wanted to finish off regional parties.
Political observers have cited the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and the Chautalas’ INLD in Haryana as sufferers of this BJP tactic. Sharad Pawar, whom Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sometimes termed as his guru, would not have wanted to risk that but now Ajit’s move underlines that such fears were not totally unfounded.
The BJP, which is the largest party in the legislative assembly, has chosen to give the CM chair to Shinde and even shared the post of deputy with Ajit. This makes Fadnavis, who was once the CM, only one of the two deputies. It appears that the BJP is happy to give away posts to reduce the regional parties to minor players with a view of long-term benefits.
The ED question
In both cases, the regional party leaderships have accused the defectors of buckling under pressure of probes by the central agencies under the Modi-led BJP government. Ajit himself has been mentioned extensively in the chargesheet filed by the Enforcement Directorate in the cooperative bank scam case, in which the central agency is conducting a money laundering probe. He has, however, not been named as an accused. Chhagan Bhujbal and Hasan Mushrif, who were sworn in as ministers on Sunday, are facing ED investigations as well. In the case of the Shinde-led Sena, leaders Pratap Sarnaik, Bhavana Gawli, Yamini and Yashwant Jadhav are facing similar probes.
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