Around 2,200 km away from each other, two different cities, one in north and another down south — Delhi and Bangalore witnessed two historically and politically crucial meetings of two different alliances on Tuesday.
Even as a series of statements came from senior politicians including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convenor Arvind Kejriwal and others, downplaying and questioning their political opponent, experts and analysts say , “Forming, norming, storming, performing — Opposition coalition has just reached the second stage — norming — with setting up the norms of coalition, while the crucial will be the third phase – storming — which will decide united they stand or united they fall.”
Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab, Delhi, Kerala and Telangana are the “pain points” for the Opposition block, they added.
The two alliances, which have contrasting ideologies, divergent policies and unique equations amongst themselves, met in Bengaluru on Monday to strategise for the 2024 General Elections. While the NDA led by the BJP connected with each other to build a perception, the Opposition’s alliance, which was known by the name of UPA earlier, came up with a new name ‘INDIA’ with the same constituents.
Social coalition on the ground, voters’ mathematics and chemistry amongst the cadres will be the crucial and main area of work for both alliances-NDA and INDIA. With parties being split in states such as Maharashtra and Bihar, factions of a divided party claiming stake over a specific voter base, the challenge is more about getting the chemistry right on the grounds, rather than mathematics on paper, senior politicians and political experts told News 18 spoke.
The ‘storming’ over the seat sharing and cadre-chemistry will unfold the real story, they added.
Four crucial stages of coalition
A section of senior leaders of the Opposition feel that an issue-based fight with a sharp focus on caste and religion calculations may bring the Muslims, Yadavs, Dalits, OBCs and a section of tribal voters together in favour of the Opposition block across states, which may challenge the BJP-led NDA. However, the senior leaders of the BJP question the basic formula of seat sharing and the primary intent of the Opposition’s alliance as many of them fight each other in states.
“Groups like this come together — first two stages are always forming and norming which means — forming an alliance and deciding norms for the alliance. This is a delicate stage. The most crucial stage is having the ideas translated to reality, which is the third stage — storming. How you deal with the stage when you are political rivals. All the five speeches by senior politicians including Kharge, Banerjee, Kejriwal have praises for the alliance, while all of them talk about different issues,” said Sandeep Shastri, national coordinator of Lokniti Network and a senior political analyst.
“So challenge number two is getting a common agenda. They are united in Opposing the BJP, but what is the positive glue that will hold them together? The third stage is storming, which includes the seat-sharing formula and how they would rise over the political contradictions. Stage four or final stage is performing. United we stand or united we fall — that is the question,” he added.
Face and Factions
Mentioning a probable social coalition of Muslims, OBCs, Dalits, Yadavs, Sandeep Shastri said the most arduous part would be to get the “cadre-chemistry right” on the ground and ensuring “proper vote transfer amongst the coalition partners in states”.
Pointing out that the issue of cadre-control and convergence on ground will not be easy for any of the alliances — NDA or INDIA, Shastri explained, “Internal contradictions are there on both sides. Does mathematics lead to a social coalition? Who will get the Maratha votes now as both Sena and NCP are divided houses. We have seen the alliance of SP and BSP, which seemed to be the most formidable social formation and caste alliance, but we know what happened in Uttar Pradesh next. The cadres did not come together and vote transfers did not happen.”
Is the coalition of the Opposition parties going to fight over issues or there will be a face pitched against Modi? After the second meeting of the Opposition block, the alliance partners have announced a new name for the front, while the common minimum programme is yet to be discussed. The next meeting will be in Mumbai, which may see the common issues on the table, up for deliberations, said a senior leader of JD(U).
“The socialist parties need to be heard properly as they have better ground- connect. Congress is bigger than the rest in the block as they are in governments in seven states. So, there has to be a right intent with patience and political composure. At this stage, we cannot allow our political ego to come in between. The first two meetings give us hope,” added the senior leader.
Shastri, however, said the BJP will try to provoke the Opposition to trap into the leadership issue, they will always want the Opposition to announce a face. “If they fall into the leadership trap, they will lose the fight even before it starts. If they decide to take this forward based on a common minimum programme and get their cadres together, BJP may face a challenge in 2024,” he added.
Old wine in a new bottle?
Amit Malviya, in charge of BJP’s National Information & Technology department and member National Executive committee said, “These are the same people. Nothing has changed. It is the same UPA. Why did the UPA say they need to kill the existing formation and introduce a new entity with the same people — why? Why is this existential crisis? What is the hullabaloo about the new name while the characters remain the same?
He further said, “We fail to understand that what can the Congress add to West Bengal when Mamata Banerjee is not ready to cede any space to Congress or CPI(M)? Will the Congress not fight in Punjab and Delhi and Telangana? Will Kerala only see LDF candidates contesting? There is no answer to these questions yet. We have fought the same coalition 2014 and 2019,” he added.
Comments
0 comment