Will the results of the Karnataka Assembly elections 2023 affect the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the coming general elections in 2024?
In 2009, the BJP came to power in Karnataka, but their victory in the state did not benefit the party nationwide in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the UPA won. Similarly, the Congress won Karnataka comfortably in 2013, but the BJP won the 2014 General elections. The Congress took 122 seats and established the government, whereas the BJP held just 40 seats, down from 110 in 2008. However, the BJP was able to win 17 out of the state’s 28 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
However, the trend changed in 2018-2019 polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won a majority, while having a government in Karnataka as well.
Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats. In the previous four Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 18 seats in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2014, and 25 in 2019.
In terms of the vote share percentage of the BJP in previous Lok Sabha elections from Karnataka, it was 34.7% in 2004, 41.6% in 2009, 36.2% in 2014, and 51.75% in 2019.
NO STRONG PM FACE
It seems that the opposition is still struggling to find a strong counter-candidate against the BJP’s Narendra Modi as the PM face. The BJP took advantage of this in the general elections of 2014 and 2019, and set the agenda by raising the ‘Modi versus Who’ question. According to a media survey, the ‘brand Modi’, which ranged from 5-10 per cent in Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018, reached 32 per cent in 2019.
The BJP presented Modi as a development-oriented leader from Gujarat to a leader of international stature. The BJP leaders repeatedly stated that India’s international standing has risen since PM Modi took over in 2014. PM Modi himself claimed that since his government took office, India has advanced in all dimensions of governance, diplomacy, and economics.
WILL MODI FACTOR WORK IN 2024 ELECTIONS?
As per the C-Voter survey of April 2023, there is a decline in PM Modi’s popularity. However, he is still the most preferred choice for the PM’s post, with 52 per cent votes in his favor compared to Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar, and Rahul Gandhi. While in the same survey in 2022, PM Modi was the top choice of about 53 per cent of respondents.
According to the January 2023 edition of India Today’s Mood of the Nation poll, BJP candidate Narendra Modi is continuously nation’s leading choice for the post of Prime Minister with 52% of the votes in the survey.
On the other hand, 14% of people want Congress’ former President Rahul Gandhi as the next prime minister.
MODI VS OTHER BJP LEADERS?
In the January 2023 edition of India Today’s Mood of the Nation poll, other BJP leaders got fewer votes than PM Modi. The other BJP leaders were Home Minister Amit Shah (26%), Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath (25%), and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari (16%).
Even if the BJP did not win in the Karnataka Assembly elections 2023, it still has the potential to win in the Lok Sabha elections, as the opposition still does not have a strong candidate for the PM post.
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