In the absence of real issues to attack the Modi government, the debates are raging around Narendra Modi’s 400 paar (with BJP at 370) target. Like in the previous two Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019, Modi’s opponents are hoping against a scenario of the BJP falling short of an absolute majority and thereby opening up possibilities of a Congress-led coalition government.
Though that would be their preferred option, there is also the “180s Club” who still visualise a scenario of someone else from within the BJP – Nitin Gadkari is the current favourite, in 2014 it was Rajnath Singh – of upstaging Modi and forming the government with outside support. They belong to the ABM (Anyone but Modi) club. Many of them are non-resident Indians parked along the Washington DC Beltway and Ivy League campuses. For them, anything less than 370 for the BJP would be construed as a defeat for Modi.
Similarly, there is a North-South school of political analysts who are salivating at the prospects of the BJP biting dust in South India. They are hell-bent on proving that the BJP is essentially a North Indian party (like they used to call it a Brahmin-Bania party till Modi and Amit Shah cracked the caste code). The same lot had ruled that a Gujarati would never be accepted in the “Hindi heartland”, a challenge that Modi took head-on and put permanently to rest by contesting from Varanasi in 2014. It is not of any concern to them that the Congress has been nearly wiped out from Uttar Pradesh and relegated to fourth position in Bihar. In both states, the party has been out of power for over three decades now. Instead, they derive voyeuristic pleasure in visualising the Tamizh land as Modi’s veritable Waterloo, when what they ought to be looking at is what happens to the BJP’s vote share in crucial states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Be that as it may, after groping with several diverse and disparate campaign planks, the Opposition seems to have converged to the “Democracy in Danger” line which is now being recited non-stop by leaders of all hues. While the Congress is positioning these elections as a battle to “Save The Constitution”, Mamata Banerjee and Lalu Prasad Yadav have gone as far as to say that if the BJP returns to power, there will not be any more free elections in India and an authoritarian regime will take over the country. There are apprehensions being raised about the BJP and RSS mission to have One Nation, One Religion and One Language. Although this might sound as rabid fear-mongering, it is finding some takers overseas, especially among the global media who are amplifying the apprehensions. This does raise suspicion about whether this “line” of propaganda has originated from India or has been supplanted from abroad through their local deep assets.
However, the moot question is if such a theory will cut with the ordinary voters. Opinion polls published so far, for whatever they are worth, show no evidence of these being issues with the electorate. However, going by the way the Opposition is ratcheting up the spiel, it would appear that they might have discovered a chink in the BJP’s armour. The Congress is not stopping at that. Going for the jugular, it has added three other elements – the RSS ideology, where Rahul Gandhi repeatedly brings up the reference to Savarkar, Modi’s Hindu credentials and finally, it is hitting hard on the issue of electoral bonds. The last, it seems, has been chosen by Congress as the “Rafale” of 2024. It is deflecting the argument that other parties have also received substantial donations through electoral bonds alleging that the BJP has cornered a lion’s share of the bonds through “extortion”.
Even assuming that the latest narrative of the Opposition is finding resonance with the electorate, can it create an upsurge of negative emotions which will ultimately translate to strong anti-incumbency? This would primarily depend on the alternative before the voters. In 2014 when there was overwhelming antipathy against the UPA on corruption – the BJP and NDA were clearly seen as a superior alternative. Does the Congress and UPA evoke similar favourable sentiments, even on a relative scale now? Probably not. In fact, there is reason to believe that the overhang of UPA II’s inept governance has not been erased from the minds of the voters, especially the younger ones, even if the older generation is inclined to be more forgiving. While the elders may be happy with doles and cash in hand, Gen Next will be looking for what either of the parties can offer for their future. Here, lies the importance of the election manifestos.
Until a few years ago, people paid little attention to the election manifestos. Political parties went through the exercise more as a custom. These were documents of pious platitudes, rhetoric and vague promises of welfare measures. However, the BJP has managed to change that by delivering against pre-election promises such as Article 370 and Ram Mandir. This has made the Congress take its own manifesto exercise more seriously. This is reflected in the detail. Whether one agrees with its schemes or approach, one cannot deny that considerable thought and homework has gone into articulating issues they wished to highlight.
While the Congress manifesto emphasised on ‘NYAY’ and caste census, the BJP focused on its idea of ‘Viksit Bharat’ with #ModiKiGuarantee. It tries to build upon the successes of the previous two terms and accelerate development with the aid of technology. It is rooted in betting on the confidence of the people to create a brighter future of their own eschewing despondency – which is underscored in Congress’ promise of doles and quotas. New India cannot be built on crutches; it needs industry, infrastructure and above all entrepreneurship and the will to win. That should be the unifying spirit of the true ‘One India’ cutting through regions, religion, caste and economic strata.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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