Barring last elections, the Muzaffarpur constituency has always been considered a bastion of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). But due to a changed caste equation, the contests on all 11 Assembly seats in the district seem very interesting.
The Mahagathbandhan of RJD-JDU-Congress is witnessing a tough fight here. The alliance is not in a very favourable situation even where Muslim-Yadav equation dominates, as the NDA has strategically fielded candidates of same caste from those seats. Apart from that, non-Yadav and Kurmi voters are rallying behind the NDA.
Though the RJD had managed to bag just one seat in the last elections, it has fielded candidates on as many as nine seats this time. The JDU has fielded its candidates on just two seats.
Sakra: From this seat, BJP has fielded its old activist Arjun Ram. The good image of Arjun, an associate of RSS, is turning election in his favour. The Mahagathbandhan has given ticket to Lalbabu Ram. With the Dalit vote divided, the advantage is with Arjun Ram. He is also enjoying the support of the forward class voters. In such situation, 40,000-strong Kushwaha voters will play a decisive role on this seat.
Sahebganj: Raju Kumar Singh, who won last time on a JDU ticket, is contesting on a BJP ticket this time. On the other hand, the RJD has shown faith in former MLA Ramvichar Rai. The direct fight here is between Yadavs and Rajputs. In this condition, one who manages to get the votes of Dalits and backward class will be the winner.
Baruraj: This is the lone seat from where RJD had managed to win last time. That time Brajkishore Singh had bagged this seat for the RJD, but this time his son Arun Kumar is in fray on BJP ticket. RJD has fielded Nand Kumar Rai from this seat. It is believed that Nunia caste voters are the deciders on this seat and rumour is that they are with the BJP this time.
Kanti: This the only seat from where Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM is contesting. The party has fielded Ajit Kumar. He had won the previous elections on a JDU ticket. The RJD has fielded Parvez Alam. In this constituency, people are angry with sitting MLA, hence anti-incumbency has a role to play.
Paaru: It is widely that one who earns the votes of Bhumihars emerges as the winner from this seat. And this is the reason why BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh is looking confident for second time. He is facing challenge from RJD’s Shankar Prasad Yadav.
Muzaffarpur: On this seat, JDU’s Vijendra Singh and sitting BJP MLA Suresh Sharma are fielded against each other. The city voters are not happy with the sitting MLA but the caste equation is giving advantage to BJP.
Kudhani: Nitish Kumar’s Cabinet colleague Manoj Kushwaha is in fray from this seat. He is also the sitting MLA from here. The BJP has fielded Kedar Gupta , who was a village head earlier. The JDU is banking on division of Kushwaha votes to take mileage. But Vaishya community is in majority here and those votes are expected to go to the BJP. Extreme backward class will decide the election here.
Meenapur: This seat is stronghold of Kushwaha community. Last time, Dinesh Kushwaha had wrested this seat on JDU ticket. But this time his son Ajay Kumar is contesting election on BJP ticket.
RJD has fielded Munna Yadav from here. As far as caste equation is concerned, Nishad or Mallaha community stands second after Kushwaha. This community considers BJP’s Mukesh Yadav as their leader.
Gayaghat: From this seat BJP’s Veena Devi and RJD’s Maheshwar Yadav are in direct contest. In last election, the fight was also between them.
Aurai: Sitting BJP MLA Ramsurat Rai is facing RJD’s Surendra Rai this time. This is the reason that M-Y factor is not working here. But BJP’s rebel leader is also contesting as Independent. That is the reason Ramsurat Rai is in trouble.
Bochahan: Due to dynasty politics, it seems that LJP will lose this seat. On this seat, the direct contest is between Independent Bebi Kumari and RJD’s Ramai Ram. Earlier, the LJP had fielded Bebi Kumari but later replaced her with Ram Vilas Paswan’s son-in-law Anil Kumar Sadhu. Bebi has been getting sympathy vote on this seat.
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