Forecast based on exit poll, post-poll survey

New Delhi: The findings of Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS Gujarat Poll are based on a combination of the usual exit poll (an interview as the voter exits the polling station premises) with post-poll survey (interview with the electors at their residence after the day of polling).

This was done to ensure that we can select our sample more carefully and that our investigators can interview the respondents at length and in privacy.

Thus for the first phase of elections, both types of surveys were used. In the post poll survey 1,954 persons on the voters' list were interviewed at 112 locations in 28 assembly constituencies between December 11 and 13.

This was supplemented by a small exit poll of 1,394 respondents in 28 polling booths. The second phase was only an exit poll in which 5,585 voters were interviewed at 128 polling booths in 32 assembly constituencies. Thus in both the phases a total of 8,933 respondents were interviewed in 60 assembly constituencies.

The sampled assembly constituencies were selected randomly. In every sampled assembly constituency, four polling stations were then randomly selected.

For the post-poll survey the respondents were randomly sampled from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling booths. In the exit poll the investigators randomly selected persons coming out of the polling booth.

The interviews were conducted in face-to face situation with the sampled respondents using a structured interview schedule.

The sample selected was fairly representative as it more or less reflected the social diversity of the population and census figures in Gujarat. It included, 45 percent women, (48 per cent in the state), 10 percent Dalits (7 percent in the state), 15 percent Adivasis (15 percent in the state) and 10 per cent Muslims (9 percent in the state).

Survey team

The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated in Gujarat by Priyavadan M Patel (Vadodara) along with his colleagues, Hemixa Rao (Rajkot) and Bhanu M Parmar (Anand). Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi directed the survey.

The Central team which designed, coordinated and analyzed the survey comprised Yogendra Yadav, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Praveen Rai, Sanjeer Alam, Dhananjai Joshi, Banasmita Bora, Vikas Gautam, Kinjal Sampat of CSDS and Rajeeva Karandikar of Cranes Software International Limited.

(Queries regarding the survey could be send at [email protected])