The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on course to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “400 paar" target for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections while securing a historic third straight term at the Centre, according to Network18’s Mega Opinion Poll.
The opinion poll, India’s biggest such survey, predicts the NDA is set to win 411 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha with the BJP alone bagging a record 350 seats. The remaining NDA constituents, including the Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party, will win 61 seats.
The survey indicates that the BJP-led NDA will sweep the Hindi heartland (with 77 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 28 in Madhya Pradesh, 10 in Chhattisgarh, 38 in Bihar, and 12 in Jharkhand) and Karnataka (25). It will also likely see a sharp rise in numbers in Odisha (13), West Bengal (25), Telangana (8), and Andhra Pradesh (18). The ruling alliance is also likely to bag all 26 seats in PM Modi’s home state Gujarat.
The NDA is also expected to spring surprises in Tamil Nadu (5) and Kerala (2), the two states where it is working overtime to make its presence felt.
The opinion poll has predicted that the opposition bloc INDIA, a united front comprising major non-BJP parties including the Congress, will win a combined 105 seats in the lower house. The Congress may end up with just 49, which would be its second-worst performance in Lok Sabha polls after its historic low of 44 in 2014.
‘Others’, including the AIADMK, BSP, BRS, BJD, YSRCP, etc, could together net about 27 seats, according to the findings.
The NDA will collectively secure nearly half of the total votes cast, the opinion poll has predicted.
The survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95% of all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each of the Lok Sabha constituencies, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were selected. Five polling booths were selected in each Vidhan Sabha constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Utilising a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling.
Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geo-tagged to verify its authenticity.
A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
Comments
0 comment