Exploring the Trump phenomena and a pathway towards brokered convention
This presidential race feels like a game of monopoly with bobble head game pieces. Flip the board, already!If anybody tells you they have figured out the republican race and giving you all those MBA heavyweight terminological framework analysis, they are blatantly lying to you.
I did that for a living, I might be lying to you right now. But then, as the wife of Ashok Chettan says, you shall never know. So, read on—at least you will have a hearty laugh.As of today, the front runner of the Republican Party is busy defending his penis and how well endowed he is on a freaking national television at the GOP Primary Debate in prime time. Unsurprisingly, a huge bunga-bunga jamboree party, this is turning out to be. The unprecedented support base for Trump across the country is a phenomenon and a case study in itself.
Before getting into the current standing and the path forward, let us try to understand the secrecy behind Trump’s success and equal repulsion. There is a strong grass root #NeverTrump movement going on right now across the length and breadth of United States. Ironically, it is championed by sitting GOP Senators and representatives along with republican voters.
Donald Trump- A synonym for snow flake Candy; you find it strangely funny and simultaneously, interesting- but you know if you consume it, you are going to die of diabetics with a kidney failure. ‘Trump Cult’, as I have repeatedly called them or as the masses fondly calls - Trumpkins- somewhat like George Kutty from Calicut calls neighbor Raisiamma aunty as Omanakutty- devoid of logic.
One can broadly classify ‘Trump Cult’ into 3 divisions:a) The Angry Voters: Some of the current GOP presidential candidate (read Ted ‘Devaame’ Cruz), along with few buddies (read Rand Freaking Paul), plotted his presidential run starting 2012. What Ted needed was a set of voters who were freakishly angry with the federal government- Washington Cartel- yes yes, it sounds like Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright from House of Cards- Oh damn it is! (On a side note, Season 4 of House of Cards is now available on Netflix- stop reading this, go and watch it- I am not going anywhere).
They did this by filibustering few of the bills- Ted ‘Devaame’ Cruz even read Green Eggs and Hams to his daughters from the senate floor-Oh btw, did you know they even shut down their own federal government?- A new breed of angry voters was propping up all across the country. Over the course of next 3 years, this gang of Anti-Washington Cartel- to avoid any confusion, let us call them Texas Gang- plotted and orchestrated their plan to an extent that the anger was somewhat like when Rosamma aunty used to hold onto her ire and scorn towards her womanizer, wife beating, thendi of a husband.
One fine day, she stabbed him 87 times. When the long 2012 republican primary battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum damaged the party, the smart ass GOP changed few delegate allocation rules to have a sort of clear front runner by the end of March, so that the Party could unite behind the frontrunner. The plan was good and simple- twist in the tale- a new hostile takeover is about to materialize- yes yes, in the form of Sir Sir Donald ‘Phony’ Trump.\
Ted ‘Devaame’ Cruz didn’t anticipate this enormous snow flake candy in the backside.So how did Donald ‘Snowflake’ Trump tap into this colossal chunk of votes? - No daa- not with his “my penis longer than yours” conversation. Or, may be somewhat. First, he portrayed himself as an alpha male:- Chimpanzee Politics- ambitious male seeking alpha dominance in a group. This wasn’t difficult at all, after the nation watched him repeatedly every week, as an alpha male dominating minions and contestants on The Apprentice, right in their drawing room.
Furthermore, he continued doing so by thrashing just about anything that stood in his way or he thought was eminent danger- from McCain to Megyn Kelly (I love her- She is so beautiful!)- in return he got free airtime by being a bully and dominated it for the better time of the year. Good strategy with a limited budget. Secondly, he mixed patriotism with anger:- somewhat make an appearance that only patriots are standing with him and rest don’t care about the country, in most of the rallies, the crowd chants the name of the candidate, in Trump’s rallies and they are yuge- you hear “USA USA USA”. Thirdly, a strong Social Media strategy with Dan Scavino:- he freaking ran contests for best social media supporters- sort of started attracting the influencer- what does he think he is?
Honda Amaze Twitter contest? – Cheap MS Paint made infographs circulated as attack on opponents or on their so called policies. It looks worse than when Annakutty tried drawing the family portrait in Kindergarten. But it looked sincere, made with love. Fourthly, discredit the Media:- he repeatedly discredited any media that was critical of his past or his policies- called them the tools of the establishment and going after a patriot.
You see, these angry voters already hate the establishment and federal government. Easy Peasy! His team quickly replaced the news with Breitbart and Drudge report- gave them credibility- his true angry voter followers now had something to read. And finally, he used his name “Trump”- a name somewhat synonymous with success. At least the ‘Trumpkins’ think so. And if media tried discrediting his success and highlighted his repeated business failures, go back to step four- all well laid out.
This set of angry voters needed exactly that- anti-establishment candidate who brims of success and future- who could lead them to the new world- an alpha male- Donald ‘Snowflake Savior’ Trump. b) White Supremacist and bigots : As a great philosopher and a true role model of millions, Ms. Susamma Adolfaapally once said, even bigots got a vote to cast. Nobody cared much about them- until now. They saw this white guy who talked about Christianity and thrashed Islam – including proposed temporary ban of visitors based on religion, advocating war crimes on television and actually feeling proud of it, throwing out black and Islamic voters from rallies- the voice of an egg-twitter-troll.
The inner bigot in many got a voice. They connected with Donald Troll immediately. The Klu Klax Klan got a voice. They found a hero. Raw data and exit polls show that more than 65% of the GOP voters support temporary Muslim immigration ban. In fact, in South Carolina where Donald Troll swept the state with 32.5 % vote share, 75 ‘bigoting’ percentages of voters agreed with Mr. Troll’s idea of a Muslim ban. Trump supporters: "Cruz and Rubio were rude, in addition to being Latino...we whites are still in charge, and watch us roar."c) Reboot Voters : This are a new breed of voters altogether. Although their chunk is not as much as the first two kinds, they want Donald ‘break it all’ Trump to be the GOP nominee. Reason; astonishing as it sounds, but very much true, is to uproot the current GOP so that it can reboot itself towards a new party- a grass root party.
It is somewhat like little Princy Kutty who destroyed her collection of toys in anticipation of getting new set of toys. She was very bored- babies I tell you! - they are full of shit- all they do on a daily basis is eat, shit and sleep. Majaani Life? But what little Princy Kutty got in return was nice red hand prints on her bums. Then there are few surplus voters that go with the flow- the herd mentality- like to be seen and supporting a winner.
Trump campaign is a phenomenon, a well orchestrated and planned movement. GOP is having record voter turnout at all primaries. On a side note, if Jeb Bush- little dubiya man- wasn’t running for President, it is highly possible Trump candidacy would not have happened.Current Delegate Count: 325 delegates of 1237 needed for VictoryTed ‘Devaame’ Cruz: He is the star of the tea party- a full conservative – Cuban/Canadian dissent- As briefly described above; the Texas Cartel plotted the plan very well.
With the new GOP delegate allocation rule in place, he had expected to sweep through the SEC States winning large number of delegates and clinching the centre of the podium on debate stages. But this didn’t happen. A ground work laid out by poor paavum Cruz for his victory and triumph to the throne was distorted and damaged by one man and his Army of ‘Patriots’ – Donald ‘Patriot’ Trump.Ted voters are basically conservative religious voters- more of the southern Texas voters.
But they are angry voters too. Texas Cartel made them angry. Very angry! Rossama aunty type angry. You see what I am getting at. No? Okay, the famous artist who drew circles- yeah Mr. Euler Wenn taught us when in doubt; just draw some circles, your doubts will go up in the air. So you see, using Mr. Wenn’s circles we can tell that the intersection area between conservative voters and angry voters are quite huge. Thereby, large chunk of Ted’s voters are voting for Donald ‘Angry’ Trump.
The Texas Cartel plan tanked. However, he won Texas and 3 other states.Ted ‘hated’ Cruz is not liked by his Senate colleagues. Senator Lindsey Graham said and I quote; “If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.”Now at this Juncture, Ted ‘hopeless’ Cruz needs the help of the GOP establishment."Oh, we'll save you Ted.
We'll totes forget how you used us a foil to boost your career. We'll get right on that. Wait by the phone!"Current Delegate Count: 237 delegates of 1237 needed to clinch the nomination.Marco ‘Hope’ Rubio: A moderate conservative senator from Florida; rising from the bottom- Cuban origin-dishwasher mom and blue collar dad. He is not the most favorite of the establishment, but he is the only one establishment can relate to and support who has little chance of clinching the nomination and beating Hillary Clinton in November.
Back in 2012, Donald Trump tweeted in support of Rubio to be Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential candidate. On a stage in South Carolina with Gov. Nikki Haley (Indian Origin), Sen. Tim Scott (African Origin) and Sen. Marco Rubio (Cuban Origin), it showcased the Regan Republican diversity- it was beautiful- watch Rubio’s speech after he came second on You-tube. He is the only one who can unite the Party.Having almost come close to upsetting Donald Trump in Iowa, followed by a disastrous debate in New Hampshire and thereby, finishing fifth in NH; people started writing him off.
He came back strong to finish second in South Carolina and Nevada and almost defeated Donald Trump in Virginia. Rubio has been on the receiving end of negative ad campaigns by Bush and Clinton’s Super Pac. It is estimated that close to $50 Million has been spent only on attacking Little Rubio. Marco ‘attack’ Rubio went after Donald ‘Conman’ Trump since the last debate before Super Tuesday and has repeatedly asked him to reveal his policies for the nation. He and his supporters have championed the #NeverTrump movement which now also features Mitt Romney and John McCain. Mr. Romney in his passionate speech appealed the GOP voters to save the party from a hostile rowdy takeover.
You remember how Mittal Steels took over Arcelor? Read Cold Steel, if you don’t.Marco ‘Leightweight Chocker’ Rubio needs to win Florida, his home state, if he wants to have any realistic chance of winning the nomination. As the battle field moves North, he is bound to be more favorable. He has won Minnesota; or as Ann Coulter- Trump’s fan girl- calls it, ‘Land of Somalis’. The only state where Trump came third.Marco ‘Hope’ Rubio is the best bet to win the white house for the republicans.Current Delegate Count: 117 delegates of 1237 needed to win.John ‘Helper’ Kasich: The current governor of Ohio has no real contention of getting the nomination until it is a contested convention.
The divided #NeverTrump votes have been one of the reasons why Trump is winning states after states with just around 35% votes. Probably, now it is too late for him to get out of the race and consolidate #NeverTrump votes behind Rubio. He desperately needs to hold on to his winner take it all home state of Ohio and its 66 delegates.Current Delegate Count: 27 delegates of 1237 needed to win.
(Not happening!)What next for #NeverTrump campaign? As Rubio made a limited play in Texas so that he doesn’t cut into Cruz’s voters, Cruz needs to do the same in Florida and both of them need to not muddle in Ohio for Kasich to take it. But then, in the strategic sum game, you expect things for a collective good. But then, we are animals and we thrive for our individual prosperity.
As of today, Cruz is heavily invested in Florida and diluting Rubio’s campaign and odds there. Cruz has sensed blood in the water. Idiots need to play it smart and tactically. But then, we homo sapiens are inevitably morons. Don’t look at me like that, you know it is true! Totally like when Anish and Suresh fought for Ann, and finally Ann’s parents decided to marry her off to Mahesh. Sad Sob Story- Anish and Suresh are very good friends now.
Strategy: Make the battle long and tiringLet us assume that in March 5-12; upcoming proportional states including Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan and Mississippi break down according to how the previous 15 races did and in worst case scenario, Trump wins Florida and Ohio and wins 45% of the rest of the delegates on March 15.Candidate March 5-12 Delegate Count March 15 Delegate Count Donald Trump 485 741 Marco Rubio 174 206 John Kasich 41 49 Ted Cruz 355 422 Thus, after March 15, Donald ‘fraud’ Trump needs to win 50% of the remaining delegates in most of the upcoming proportional states to clinch the nomination if both Kasich and Rubio lose their home state. Doable if both Rubio and Kasich drop out.
In case Kasich holds onto Ohio, it would be close to 68% of the delegates. They need to stay till the end to bleed Trump out. Trump will end up with around 78% of the delegate required to win the nomination which would lead to a brokered or a deadlocked convention. This what real men do. No? In a brokered convention, only for the first ballot, the pledged delegates need to stay with their candidates. *wink wink*. If GOP plays their cards right, one can have a candidate of their choice. Probably a Rick Perry as a unity consensus candidate- yeah yeah, when 2 cats were fighting over the cake- Suresh Babu came and took away the cake. On a personal note, it is better to lose White House this election cycle and look forward to 3 term democrat anti-incumbency and beat them in 2020. March Madness this is going to be.
(Jacob Parackal is a management consultant and COO at Select My Tutor- In other words a Troublemaker. He is a Rubio Republican. The views expressed in the article are his own and does not reflect the stand of Network18)
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