"Is Telangana coming, Madam?" asked the courier boy as I stepped inside the lift to reach my office on Thursday morning. I smiled at him and before I could reply, the others in the lift roared with laughter.
"I think god is also confused about it now," remarked a gentleman in his mid-thirties.
"Whatever it is, they have left us feeling like a pendulum, not knowing which way to swing!" rued the old man taking his granddaughter to the dentist on the 2nd floor.
We all stood in silence for those few seconds that remained, almost mourning the political state of a region we are all so proud of, and then each of us went our own way, to live a life as normally as we can.
This small incident is not an isolated one. Telangana and the state bifurcation have dominated discussions and debates all over Andhra Pradesh for the last 5 years now. Since TRS Chief K Chandrasekhar Rao's hunger strike in 2009 that prompted Congress to make an announcement that they have regretted ever since, the Telangana tangle has seeped into every drawing room, every coffee house and even business meetings. What has remained constant though is the uncertainty of what the future holds for the largest state of south India.
Andhra Pradesh has 42 Lok Sabha seats, placing itself among the top 4 Indian states with the highest number of representatives in Parliament (After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal).
Congress swept the 2009 polls in the state winning 33 of those 42 seats. The party was jubilant, the cadre never as enthusiastic. The win was almost a foregone conclusion under the late chief minister YSR Reddy's undisputable clout. Unlike 2004, the Congress didn't even need the TRS crutch to help it hop over the victory line. It was as good as it gets.
But 5 years later, the Congress is in tatters in Andhra Pradesh. It will be a pleasant surprise to many of the party legislators, if Congress can even reach the double digit mark in the LS polls. Regional parties like the TDP, TRS and YSR Congress party are sure to pull the cosy rug from under Congress's feet this summer. But then again, it's a rug that Congress tore apart on its own, thread by thread over the last few years.
Promising a separate state in 2009, then backtracking, and then dragging its feet on an issue as emotional as this, has left Congress loyalists hurt and betrayed. The time period was more than sufficient for TRS to re-think its strategy for survival in 2014 elections, for Jagan Reddy to whip up enough emotion in 13 districts of Seemandhra and for the Telugu Desam, the main opposition, to find a rather narrow but nevertheless a middle path in this entire fiasco.
The old battle saying goes, "Know your friends well but know your enemies better."
While the Congress, soaked in its 10 years of power, chose to ignore the wise words, late CM YSR Reddy's son, Jagan Reddy heeded the sound advice. After having spent more than a year behind bars for alleged corruption during his father's regime, Jagan is now the biggest threat to strong ground-based parties like the Telugu Desam. He watered down corruption allegations with the "political vendetta" hose, winning 15 of the 18 assembly seats in the bypolls in June 2013.
The YSR Congress party is the only major party that has clearly stated its United Andhra Pradesh stand. While this has strengthened the party's prospects for 25 LS seats in 13 districts of Coastal Andhra and Rayalseema, it has to a large extent diminished the chances of the new party in Telangana.
But it's a risk the party is willing to take. While the TRS is spear heading the bifurcation movement and is hailed in the 10 districts of Telangana, Jagan reddy's YSR Congress party has filled a similar political vacuum in Seema Andhra, emerging as the face of the United AP movement.
But it may not be as smooth a ride as Jagan and his party members hope. Known for his diligent administrative skills, Chandrababu Naidu may well be leading the Telugu Desam party to break its 10 year power jinx. The recent by polls threw up an interesting point as in the majority of the constituencies; it was TDP that came a close second to Jagan while Congress was a distant 3rd.
The TDP is known to be a strong cadre based party. Most times, even MLA defections are unable to take away their cadre to the other party. While the last time around, Chiranjeevi's Prajarajyam Party made a fatal dent to Naidu's aspirations, this time around, it's Jagan's YSR Congress that's a rising concern for the tech-savvy party.
The party has managed to maintain an unclear stand on the Telangana issue, not saying a clear yes or a no, instead brushing it under the vague phrase of "justice for all regions," and successfully managing to keep its cadre in both regions equally satisfied.
Naidu's recent meetings with Narendra Modi have sparked off speculation whether TDP will once again ally with NDA. BJP may help TDP win some lost ground from the TRS in Telangana region. Majority of the 17 LS eats of Telangana are likely to see a close contest between TRS and possibly TDP-BJP, with YSRC and Congress winning a couple or more. To keep the T pot simmering till elections is also in the interest of the BJP. It will help the party make inroads in the Congress bastion and also keep Congress from walking away with the entire credit.
And finally, for the TRS, it is a question of what next? Sources say the TRS is not too keen to keep its promise of a merger with the congress given the anti-incumbency wave. Regardless of whether Telangana becomes a reality before elections, the TRS believes it can win more seats without the Congress liability. (TRS won 2 of 17 LS seats in Telangana in 2009 while Congress won 12.) The congress though is known to be the master of shrewd politics. Post poll alliances may help in damage control.
As we head into one of the most interesting LS elections the country has seen in recent past, the only political lessons from AP and the Telangana mess perhaps are, on what not-to-do. This time, there is no foregone conclusion. This time, the game is truly on!
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