‘Mumbai Will be Safer by June 1 if…’ Study Focuses on Vaccination, New Variants to Curb Covid Spread

Covid-19 fatalities likely to reduce considerably in Mumbai by June 1 provided the vaccination drive continues without any hindrance and there is no onset of a new Covid variant, noted an analysis carried out by a team of scientists from Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in the city.

The mathematical model closely analyzing the reasons for the second Covid wave in Mumbai also predicted that covid fatalities will peak in the first week of May but by July 1 the city will be in a position to open schools.

Emphasizing that projections might be prone to error, the model further claimed that a variant of the deadly covid virus was already in circulation in the state of Maharashtra in February but it was only after local train services resumed operations that the virus found a conducive environment to spread and led to the onset of the second wave.

As per TOI, the analysis also attributed the opening up of the economy around February to the exponential growth and spread of the Covid variant.

“We find that the most likely explanation is the presence of a small amount of extremely infective variant on February 1 that grew rapidly thereafter and became a dominant strain by mid-March,” read the analysis.

Noting that the variant is 2 to 2.5 times more infectious than the dominant strain last year, and accounts for 2.5% of the infected population on February 1, the study clarified that the above figures mentioned might be incorrect but the finding that Mumbai had highly infective variants that came to have a presence in March is likely to be true.

As per govt data, the second Covid wave affected 2.3 lakh Mumbaikars and claimed 1,479 lives in April alone. On May 1, the city registered 90 deaths, the highest single-day toll in the year 2021.

Meanwhile, vaccination of 500 registered people between the age of 18 to 44 at five centers each has begun in Mumbai and will be conducted between 9 am to 5 pm. The BMC has appealed to people to abide by covid protocols as there will be no spot registration. Only those with prior appointments will be allowed inside vaccination centres.

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