May Brings Back Heat on Covid-19 as Trend Shows Reversal of Gains Made Against Pandemic in April

As India on Tuesday recorded its highest single-day surge so far with 3,875 new cases of novel coronavirus and 194 deaths, concerns are being raised as the data now indicates an early trend of reversal in gains achieved in the second half of April while battling the pandemic.

The daily case count in the country has remained over 2,000 since May 2 — it was 2,573 (83 deaths) on May 4; 2,487 (73 deaths) on May 3; and 2,411 (71 deaths) on May 2. The case count crossed 3000-mark in one day on May 5 - 3,875 (194 deaths).

According to the figures released by Union Health Ministry on Wednesday, the country recorded a total of 49,391 coronavirus cases so far, out of which 33,514 cases are active. There have been 14,182 recoveries, while 1,694 people have died. Hence, if we compare the death toll of two consecutive day, 111 people have succumbed to the infection on Wednesday, while 194 died on Tuesday, continued to make it a highest single-day surge so far.

As per data shared by the ministry, the seven-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) of Covid-19 cases started plummeting on April 8 and continued till May 1 when the curve started rising again.

Dr Randeep Guleria, Director, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), who is also a part of the core team of top officials reviewing and monitoring the outbreak of Covid-19 in the country, expressed concern over the fact that “the curve has not shown a downward trend”, reported The Indian Express.

The doubling rate of coronavirus cases slowed down from four days in the first week of April to 11 days by the end of the month. While this indicates a gradual flattening of the Covid-19 curve, the absolute numbers of daily new Covid-19 cases are yet to show any dip.

It is to be noted that the surge in the three-day CDGR is not due to the relaxation in lockdown norms that started since May 3. The effects of easing lockdown norms will become visible only after at least a week. From the last few days of April to this month, the daily surge in cases shows a deviation from the trend that had been dipping till at least April 25.

The Indian Express calculated that the first four days of May saw the addition of more than 10,000 cases, which was more than what was added in the entire 21-day long lockdown in the first phase, however, that phase started with much lower base.

As India increased the number of daily tests from under 5,000 since March to over 70,000 now, the case positivity rate – number positive cases per 100 samples – remained consistent in the 3-5 per cent range. On May 4, the daily case positivity rate of 4.23 per cent (2,572 cases from 60,783 samples tested) topped the cumulative rate of 3.87 per cent (42,835 cases from 1,007,233 samples tested) for the first time since April 26. Tuesday’s results confirm the early trend, reported The Indian Express.