It is generally argued that by-election results are predictable, as the ruling party gets the prize. However, elections to six states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, Odisha, Maharashtra and Telangana have given a verdict contrary to the established norms.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won four of the six bypolls in 2022.
Imagine this, if the results were contrary to the declared wins, that, too, before the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state elections, the media headlines would have given their judgement that ‘finally an end to the BJP in Gujarat’ and ‘the going in Himachal is tough’. TV channels would have had a field day informing their viewers that all is not well for the BJP.
Let us analyse the results below.
THE ANALYSIS
Seven seats went for bypolls, the BJP contested only six and gave a pass to the Mumbai Andheri East seat. So the BJP contested only six of seven. One, in the run-up to any election, wins are always a morale booster for the cadre of their election-going state.
Second, winning Bihar’s Gopalganj seat and Odisha’s Dhamnagar are certainly important scorecard ticks for the BJP as they go against the established norms that the ruling party wins bypolls.
Third, the grand alliance-engineering of Nitish Kumar suffered at the hands of the party alliance he had left.
Fourth, reality checks for Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) that his years of winning charisma are fading away.
Fifth, despite the grand alliance of seven political parties in Bihar, the voters chose the BJP. This is a clear signal for those who consider adding the vote percentage of castes as an unbeatable winning formula. The voter is looking at chemistry and not social engineering.
Sixth, Arvind Kejriwal’s power freebies offer to the voters was rejected and his road shows in Haryana’s Adampur seat were only hypes, giving a message to freebies politicians that voters want good governance like BJP’s Modi model.
Seventh, Telangana’s Munugode seat has a message for the Congress that Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ is not helping the diminishing grand old party, like in all other states of India.
Eighth, the next round in Telangana will witness a fierce contest between the TRS and BJP.
Ninth, the rise of Owasi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as the third player in Bihar is significant.
Tenth, Uttar Pradesh’s Gola Gokarannath win is significant as the seat is in Lakhimpur Kheri, the eastern epicentre of earlier farmers’ agitation. The message is clear that farmers’ unions amplify and distort their influence on the peasantry.
Lastly and most sacredly, the voters’ belief in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the tireless election machinery of workers created by former National BJP President Amit Shah.
Sidharth Nath Singh is a BJP MLA from Prayagraj UP and a former Cabinet Minister in Yogi 1.0 government. Views expressed are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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