On November 5, 2024, the US will hold its 60th presidential election. Two well-known figures – Joe Biden, representing the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party – will face each other in this crucial election. Interestingly, Biden is 81 years old, while Trump is 78. Beyond the typical campaign rhetoric from both sides, the two candidates also face personal challenges.
Democrats appear more concerned than Republicans about their candidate Joe Biden’s age. His recent performance during the nationally televised 90-minute presidential debate drew mixed reviews. Some observers noted instances where Biden struggled to complete sentences and pointed to a moment where he mistakenly said he “beat Medicare,” the US government healthcare program for senior citizens. Biden may have intended to say he “beat Covid-19”. This is not the first time Biden’s mental acuity has been publicly questioned. Last month, at the G7 summit in Italy, he briefly walked away from the designated area while other leaders were gathering for a photo session. These incidents have been widely circulated on social media, with some questioning Biden’s fitness to serve another term.
Some analysts speculate that concerns about Biden’s age and cognitive abilities could lead some independent voters to reconsider supporting the Democratic Party. This, they argue, could potentially impact the Democratic Party’s vote share in the upcoming election and make it easier for Trump to win a second term.
A recent CBS News/YouGov poll (conducted in June) found that 72 per cent of Americans believe that Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. This figure was 7 percentage points lower than a similar poll conducted by the same organisations just three weeks earlier, on June 9. Following the first national presidential debate, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted in late June showed Trump leading Biden by 41 per cent to 38 per cent. This marked a noteworthy shift from a statistical tie of 37 per cent to 37 per cent recorded by the same poll in May.
Some prominent Democrats are calling for Biden to step aside and allow a new generation to lead the party. However, the Democratic Party will officially select its candidate at its convention, scheduled for August 19–22, 2024, in Chicago. Even if Democrats nominate a younger candidate, challenging Trump would be an uphill battle.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is seeking another term despite facing legal challenges. In June, Trump became the first former US president to be convicted of felony crimes. New York Judge Juan Merchan oversaw the case. Trump appealed the verdict to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), which is the nation’s highest court. On Monday, the highest court affirmed broad criminal immunity for presidents regarding their official acts. Following the SCOTUS ruling, Trump’s legal team requested that Judge Merchan postpone the sentencing, originally scheduled for July 11. The judge granted the request, delaying sentencing until at least September.
The Republican Party National Convention is scheduled for July 15–18, 2024. Trump is likely to be formally nominated as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate during the convention. However, even if he secures the nomination, the fate of his election could hinge on the September sentencing in his criminal case.
The US presidential race is being closely watched not only by Americans but also by experts worldwide, who are analysing its potential global impact. Foreign policy always features prominently in US presidential campaigns, and Biden and Trump offer starkly different approaches to global issues and foreign relations.
In the wake of the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, the Biden administration stood firmly with Israel against Hamas, providing weapons and military support. However, while Biden continues to back Israel, he has also urged the nation to “get it over with,” arguing that its image is suffering. However, some polls suggest that a majority of Jewish Israelis believe Trump would be more favourable to Israel than Biden, expressing disappointment with Biden’s handling of the conflict.
US support in the form of financial aid and weapons has been crucial to Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian invasion. Trump, during his election campaign, claimed that he could end the war in a day if elected. A recent report revealed that Trump has a peace deal that would allow Putin to retain control over Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, potentially pressuring Ukraine to accept the deal by threatening to withhold further US military assistance.
This election, foreign policy extends far beyond Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza, encompassing crucial relationships with Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi. Both Biden and Trump view China’s rise as a potential threat to US interests, particularly as China is projected to become the world’s largest economy within the coming decade. Both candidates have expressed concerns about China’s growing global influence and agree on the need to take a “tough” stance. While their specific approaches may differ in some areas, both have indicated a willingness to use economic measures, including raising tariffs on Chinese goods, to counter China’s economic practices.
The US views India as a crucial geopolitical counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific region, especially as India is poised to become the world’s third-largest economy. Prime Minister Modi’s recent re-election for a third term is significant in this context. From an Indian perspective, relations with the US are likely to remain consistent regardless of who wins the upcoming election.
Modi has already established a working relationship with Biden over the past four years, which would likely continue if Biden is re-elected. Similarly, Modi worked closely with Trump during his presidency from 2016 to 2020, with Trump even visiting Gujarat and praising Modi for his cooperation with the US. Some experts believe that Trump, by nature a businessman, might prioritise transactional diplomacy, focusing on securing what he perceives as the best deal in all situations, over traditional diplomatic approaches.
Dr K. Venkatakrishna Rao, is Assistant Professor, IIITDM Kurnool and Visiting Fellow, India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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