New Delhi: The Nitish Kumar government is expected to rule Bihar for the next five years and Narendra Modi-led NDA is expected to suffer another major defeat this year after Delhi assembly polls, according to the CNN-IBN-Axis My India pre-poll survey.
The survey covered 24,576 respondents in all 38 districts and 243 assembly constituencies. The survey was carried out between September 23 and October 4.
Vote percentage
JDU-RJD-Congress alliance is expected to garner a huge 46% votes as against just 38% vote share for the BJP-led NDA. JDU alone is expected to get 26% of votes, RJD 15% votes and the Congress 5% votes.
The BJP alone is expected to get 29% of votes, the LJP just 4% votes, HAM 3% and the RLSP 2% of the votes polled.
The third players SP, BSP and NCP are likely to get 1% votes each. The others may get 13% votes.
Vote share based on caste and religious groups
The JDU–RJD–Congress alliance is expected to get 72% Muslim votes, 67% Yadav votes, 53% Kurmi/Koeri votes, 31% OBC & Others, 42% SC/ST and 14% upper caste votes. The NDA is expected to get 10% Muslim votes, 21% Yadavs, 36% Kurmi/Koeri, 53% OBC&Others, 38% SC/ST and 73% upper caste votes. The Others are expected to get 18% Muslim, 12% Yadavs, 11% Kurmi/Koeri, 16% OBC&Others, 20% SC/ST and 13% upper caste votes.
Vote share based on income groups
The BJP alliance is likely to get 36% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 38% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs 10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 40% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs 20,000 per month.
The JDU alliance is likely to get 49% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 48% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 41% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
The Others are likely to get 15% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs.10,000 per month. They are expected to get 14% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and the others are expected to get 19% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
Vote share based on age groups
A total of 40% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the BJP led alliance, 39% in the age group of 26-35 years, 38% in the age group of 36-50 years and 35% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the BJP led alliance.
On the other hand 46% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the JDU led alliance, 46% in the age group of 26-35 years, 46% in the age group of 36-50 years and 45% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the Mahagathbandhan. It shows that across all age groups, the JDU led alliance is leading.
Also 14% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the others, 15% in the age group of 26-35 years, 16% in the age group of 36-50 years and 20% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour them.
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