New York: It's the time of year when Hollywood has one eye on the box office and the other on a certain 13 1/2-inch-high golden boy and all of his similarly gold-plated buddies.
Yes, blockbusters are nice. They pay the bills, for one thing. But money can only buy so much respect in Tinseltown.
For the rest of it, it's an honor to be nominated—and this time of year, studios, movie producers, directors and performers are hoping to catch the interest of the honor-granting sovereigns at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (not to mention the other guilds and associations).
Releasing Oscar hopefuls during the last weeks of the year is a tradition that goes back decades, even if some of the recent Oscar winners—including last year's Crash-came out earlier in the calendar. The thinking has been that well-reviewed films released late in the year stick in the mind more than the same films released in, say, May (though, nowadays, a well-timed video release eg, Crash can change the game).
"Crash was the exception," says veteran Oscar-watcher and entertainment writer Tom O'Neil, who offers his opinions on the Los Angeles Times. The idea of nominating films released earlier, he says, "depends on whether the films released at the end of the year fall apart."
This year, he says, November and December are bringing plenty of good stuff.
O'Neil is highest on Dreamgirls, though the film, based on the Broadway musical about a trio much like the Supremes, is only now beginning to be seen. (It's scheduled for wide release on Christmas Day.) The buzz on director Bill Condon's film, which stars Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson and Beyonce, has been that good.
"Dreamgirls is the movie to beat," O'Neil says. "It may be a long shot for best picture because an all-black film has never won, and it may not do well financially overseas. But I think this is different. Jennifer Hudson is a standout. And a best picture always has a director element, and Bill Condon is very hot right now."
Other films that look like front-runners are the October release The Queen," starring Helen Mirren as Queen Elizabeth II in the days after Princess Diana's death; and "The Pursuit of Happiness," starring Will Smith as a struggling (and occasionally homeless) father trying to succeed for the betterment of himself and his son. It comes out December 15.
"Hollywood has gone crazy over it," he says. "It has reduced people to puddles of tears," says veteran Oscar-watcher and entertainment writer Tom O'Neil
Other forthcoming best picture possibilities include director Alejandro Gonzales Iñarritu's Babel, which earned a number of good reviews but also some harsh pans; The Good Shepherd, directed by Robert De Niro and starring Matt Damon as CIA operative Edward Wilson; Steven Soderbergh's 1940s period piece The Good German, starring George Clooney and Cate Blanchett; and Emilio Estevez's Bobby, about a group of people whose lives intersect at Los Angeles' Ambassador Hotel prior to the Robert Kennedy assassination.
Other films, such as the movie version of the Tony-winning The History Boys may receive some acting nods but not the big one: "It's a fine little film, but not a best picture," says O'Neil.
And for people who want a taste of Oscar madness while laughing at all the attendant silliness, there's For Your Consideration, the new film by Christopher Guest and his squad of champion improvisers, including Eugene Levy, Harry Shearer, Jane Lynch and Fred Willard. The story concerns the makers of an independent film, Home for Purim, which becomes an Oscar dark horse.
With the mix of real films competing for the award, who knows? It just might be possible.
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