The Ukraine-Russia conflict has various strategic and operational lessons for India. Many have spoken about the need for India to balance its strategic partnerships with the US and Russia. But, enough emphasis is not being laid on deriving operational lessons from the way the conflict has actually played out.
Many have alluded to the Russian aggression in Ukraine as a throwback to WWII-style attack led by troops and tanks. Yet, that characterisation misses out on two key facts: one, the multi-year run up to the Ukrainian invasion was full of cyberattacks and information war allegedly carried out by Russia against Ukraine; and two, Russia’s hybrid war doctrine has apparently been studied and followed to the hilt by the US this time around.
Much has been written about the cyber- and information-war tactics deployed by Russia over the last several years, but some key aspects of the US response this time around are worth noting as they have operational implications for future wars. The US has deployed a range of its tech capabilities and levers against Russia. This has included the cybersecurity teams of Big Tech firms such as Microsoft, the withdrawal of products and services by firms such as Apple, the setting up of satellite links by Tesla, and the banning of some Russian banks from the global SWIFT platform.
In that sense, this war has reinforced the role of Big Tech firms as geopolitical actors, and established clearly the dual-use nature of information technology. Hackers and cyber-personnel from around the world have also apparently been assisting Ukraine in defending against cyberattacks on its critical physical and information infrastructure.
Acknowledging the importance of the information warfare, the US has pro-actively sought to shape the information campaign around the war. Social media is flooded with videos, tweets and forwards celebrating the heroic nature of the Ukrainian people and their President. Putin has been losing the information war from this perspective, at least in countries such as India. (Admittedly, this might not be the case in countries such as China).
What does all of this mean for India? And more importantly, what can India do to better prepare against our two immediate adversaries, Pakistan and China?
Put simply, India needs a cyberwar doctrine that one, outlines its cyber-offence and cyber-defence objectives and strategy; two, identifies and plans for the resources and capabilities required; and three, lays out the operational plan for utilisation of these capabilities towards those objectives.
In the immediate short term, we must focus on boosting our cyber-defence, especially of critical physical and information infrastructure. Information and cyber-warfare typically involves intelligence operations, disrupting the enemy’s command and control operations; electronic warfare by seizing the electromagnetic advantage, targeting enemy computer and information systems; and destruction or disruption of information and physical infrastructure. The Chinese have often called this the ‘acupuncture strategy’.
We must continually identify which facilities – physical and digital – would constitute critical physical or information infrastructure, and be ready for defending them in case of cyberattacks. The physical infrastructure, for example, would include our ports, our power grids, our railways, oil and gas pipelines and other critical industries. Key information infrastructure would include not just our internet and data networks and cables, but also our financial networks and digital public infrastructure such as the UPI and Aadhaar.
Over the medium term, we must build up our cyber-offence capabilities, which will also serve as a deterrence strategy. Similar to nuclear weapons, a strategy of deterrence can be boosted by a strong cyber-offence capability. In this case, India will not be bound by a no-first use doctrine. If the adversary knows that you possess the capability to hurt it where it matters, it will be deterred from attacking you in the first place.
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We must leverage our partnership with friends such as the US, Israel, the UK and France to build up our cyber-capabilities. Many of these countries are presumably much stronger on the cyber domain, and can help us build our own cyber capabilities. India must also partner with private cybersecurity firms both in India and those based in friendly nations. These partnerships will help India fill critical capability gaps in key aspects of cyberwar, not to mention that these will be important in ensuring fast recovery from cyberattacks to critical infrastructure.
For all of this to happen, it goes without saying that India must allocate significantly larger budgets and resources, including personnel, to the cyber domain. The Indian defence sector cannot spend practically all of its budget on the traditional domains of warfare when the nature of warfare is changing so dramatically.
Ultimately, a strategic focus on this domain, a clear cyber doctrine, a coherent organisational structure, and an urgent build-up of cyber capabilities will form the pillars of an effective Indian response to cyber- or information war-style attacks by either Pakistan or China.
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