As the Omicron wave of Covid-19 has begun waning in Mumbai, experts point out that it might take another month or more for the rest of the country to see a similar decline. “Based on various mathematical models, the Omicron wave will last in India until the last week of January or early February,” top epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu was quoted by Times of India as saying.
Babu cautioned that the next couple of weeks will be crucial for India. In places such as Mumbai and Delhi, which is also seeing a decline in Covid-19 cases for the last four consecutive days, though there was a considerable threat in late December, the wave has already peaked. Another expert, Dr Om Shrivatsava, told the Times of India that by the time the Omicron wave stablises and declines, it will likely be March.
Shrivatsava said pockets such as Delhi, Maharashtra, Kerala, and Chhattisgarh could continue to see small waves that will hopefully be stabilized.
Delhi reported 12,527 fresh COVID-19 cases and 24 more deaths due to the viral disease on Monday, while the positivity rate stood at 27.99 per cent, according to data shared by the city health department. However, only 44,762 tests were conducted to detect the infection a day ago, which coincided with a weekend curfew. The number of tests was the lowest since November 30 last year, when the corresponding figure was 46,800.
Monday’s count was 31 per cent lower than the corresponding figure of over 18,000 on Sunday, with 65,621 tests being conducted on Saturday. Delhi had reported 18,286 fresh Covid cases and 28 deaths on Sunday, while the positivity rate had dropped to 27.87 per cent from 30.64 per cent the previous day.
The daily Covid tally has fallen by nearly 49% in these four days, according to an analysis by Times of India. The positive rate has also gone down, from 30.64 percent to 27.99 percent, in this period.
A doctor from Max Saket said that the hospitalization rates need to be closely monitored to impose containment measures accordingly and prevent any potential crisis.
Dr Arun Gupta, president of the Delhi Medical Council (DMC), said less people were dying ‘of Covid’ and more ‘with Covid’ and raised the need for the government to do proper death auditing. “This also highlights the need that people should not ignore other health issues and be in touch with doctors for non-Covid problems also,” he told Times of India.
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